Article optimization of the bank's currency reserve. Audit of the bank's currency reserve. Decrease in foreign exchange risks

The level of the currency exchange rate can be reduced using two methods:

• 1. correct choice of currency price;
• 2. regulation of foreign exchange positions in contracts.

Method for choosing the correct currency price An external economic contract is subject to the established price in the contract in such currency as the change in exchange rate is suitable for that organization. For an exporter, such a currency will be a “strong” currency, that is. the rate that moves over the term of the contract. For an importer, a “weak” currency is visible, the exchange rate of which decreases. It should be remembered, however, that the forecast for the Russian exchange rate is as soon as possible with the exchange rate exceeding 70%. In addition, before the end of the contract, it is not always possible to choose a currency, the interests of the partners in this relationship may be prolonged, and, therefore, choosing a favorable currency, it will be necessary to compromise on some other point of the contract (price, credit, security etc.) ), but this is not always possible and feasible.

Method of adjusting the currency position For the establishment of foreign economic contracts, subjects of the state government can compete to establish a large number of foreign economic agreements with partners from various powers. Instead of this method, ensuring a balanced structure of the penny money is achieved through the need to establish contracts, which can be achieved in two ways:

ü when contracts for export and import are signed overnight, traces should be made so that the contracts fit into the same currency and payment terms are approximately the same, at which level of the currency exchange rate, the income from exports is compensated com with import and for example.

Since the governing entity specializes in only one type of foreign economic activity, then complete diversification of the currency structure is necessary. arrangement of contracts for various currencies, which looms up to the last change in rates.

Methods of insurance against currency risks

There are two methods of insuring against currency risks:

b - currency controls;

ь – forward operations.

Currency guards represent a concept that is specifically included in the text of the contract, depending on which amount of payment is due will be changed in the same proportion as there will be a change in the exchange rate of the payment in relation to the security currency.

Currency guards link the size of due payments with changes in foreign exchange and commodity markets. This is the most extensive method of insurance against currency risks.

There are different types of currencies: indirect, direct, multi-currency.

Indirect currency not guarded stagnate in these situations, when the price of the product is fixed in one of the largest international currencies (US dollar, Japanese yen), and the payment is transferred in another penny unit, that is, the national National currency. The text of such a notice could be something like this: “Price is in US dollars, payment is in Japanese yen. If the dollar exchange rate before the day before payment changes at the same rate as the exchange rate on the day the contract is concluded, then both the price of the product and the amount of payment will change.”

Straight currency not secured It becomes stagnant if the currency of the payment is saved, but the amount of the payment specified in the contract remains due to a change in the exchange rate of the payment currency, which is completely different from a more stable currency, the so-called security currency. Direct currency control directly saves the purchasing power of currency for a large amount of money.

The formula for such a restriction could be something like this: “The price of the product and payment is in US dollars. “If on the day of payment the exchange rate to the Japanese yen on the foreign exchange market in New York is lower than the rate on the day the contract is made, then the price of the goods and the amount of payment in dollars will likely move up.”

Multi-currency security- this security is based on the correction of the payment amount in proportion to the change in the exchange rate of the payment currency, not just one, but to a specially selected set of currencies (currency box), the rate of which is insured as its average value according to the standard method, for example , based on the arithmetic mean a summary of the exchange rate of the skin of the "cat" currencies from the output level or on the basis of changing the stratified arithmetic mean of the exchange rate of the intended set of currencies. (1)

Substantiality forward operations zі insurance of foreign exchange risks axis y why. Forward currency exchange - sales or purchases of the current amount of currency at an interval between the hours of exchange and exchange rates according to the exchange rate of the day of exchange. In this case, the forward rate is insured on the basis of the spot rate plus net income or net expenses for the capital:

ü currency purchased spot and deposited before the payment term;

b currency sold on spot and deposited by the counterparty in advance of the payment term.

Net income and net expenses are expressed through:

“Pipsy” is definitely added or read from the course

In times of forward operations, the exporter, when

Having signed the contract, having approximately determined the payment schedule, his bank agrees to transfer the amount of future payments in foreign currency at the predetermined rate. The value of exports and those that mean revenue from the national currency before the withdrawal of payment sets the price of the contract. The bank that arranges the forward agreement is required to deliver on the date stipulated in the contract the equivalent of the national currency at the previously determined rate, regardless of the actual change in the exchange rate to the national currency on that date. The enterprise must ensure the availability of currency to the bank or submit an authorization for the transfer of currency beyond the border (depending on the authority of the party that exports or imports).

The importer, however, then buys foreign currency from the bank with the help of a forward contract, as a result of the exchange rate of the currency being transferred to the payment fixed in the contract.

Similarly, a foreign investor can insure the risk associated with a possible depreciation of the currency exchange rate - an investment, through the sale of a foreign term to the bank, thereby saving the bank's assets for expenses.

In this way, the client insured his risks. Rizik caught on himself. From this point on the risk is accepted, it is necessary for the bank itself to hedge. Therefore, the bank, as a rule, on the same day for the same amount and in the same currency, buys another forward deal with another bank or a futures deal on a specialized exchange.

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1 ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF OPTIMIZATION OF CURRENCY RESULTS Malashchuk Dmitro Valeriyovich Ph.D. ekon. Sciences, Associate Professor, Far Eastern Scientific Research Institute “Kyiv National Economic University named after. Vadim Hetman", Ukraine, m. Kiev Vasilyuk Dmytro Mikhailovich, Master of Business Economics, DVNZ "Kiev National Economic University named after. Vadym Hetman", Ukraine, m. Kiev ORGANIZATIONALLY-ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION ASPECTS OF CURRENCY RISKS Malashchyk Dmytro Director of Economic Sciences, Social Doctor, Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University, Ukraine, Kyiv Vasyliuk Dmytro Master, Ukraine, Kyiv ABSTRACT In the statistic of the position this comprehensive In this approach, a system of methods and models for optimizing currency risks has been explored. Also reviewed are the current approaches to the development of the VAR strategy for managing the bank's foreign exchange risk. The main methods have been studied Malashchuk D.V., Vasilyuk D.M. Organizational and economic aspects of optimizing currency risks // Universum: Economics and jurisprudence: electronic. Sci. magazine (15). URL:

2 estimates of VAR value. Recommendations have been given to improve the use of banking practice, and an algorithm for choosing an instrument for the breakdown of the VAR value has been proposed. ABSTRACT The material from the position of a complex method, a system of methods and models, currency optimization risks is investigational. Press on the supply line VAR methods for managing the risk of risk in jars that have been reprocessed in materials. The main methods for estimating the VAR value are overstated. Recommendations on its use in banking practice and tool selection algorithm is proposed VAR. Key words: currency exchange rates, methods for assessing currency exchange rates, exchange rates. Keywords: currency risk, currency evaluation risk methods, volatility course of currencies. Today's global currency markets occupy first place in terms of turnover and therefore influence both the entire world economy and the economy of neighboring countries. The functioning of such powerful blocks as the Forex market, the European market and similar global currency markets serves the flow of penny flows, mediating the interstate flow of goods, services, and the redistribution of capital. The high liquidity of international currency markets is ensured by the great transnational banks; total international assets can be equal to the budgets of several great powers. There is no regular administrative regulation and exchange on international currency markets. The main and, perhaps, the only boundaries here are power caution and transferability in assessing the risks that arise.

3 In the minds of the functioning of the world currency market, an invisible mind has become the guilt of foreign exchange risks during the development of foreign exchange transactions. Therefore, the foreign exchange rate is one of the trends in the development of the foreign exchange market, which must be examined in detail. The follow-up of the management of the foreign exchange risk is dedicated to a large number of people, including O.I. Baranovsky, E.M. Vasylishin, V.V. Vitlinsky, L.I. Donets, V.O. Zinchenko, O.B. Lupin, V.I. Mishchenko, O.M. Moroz, S.I. Nakonechny, V.I. Sushko, I.V. Shamova and richly in. Regardless of the significant scientific developments, a thorough development of basic methods and approaches to the management of monetary risks is controversial and will require a constant thoroughness in keeping with current realities. The foreign exchange risk is one of the most widely monitored financial risks. This can be attributed to the uncertainty of changes in the penny flow during transactions with foreign currencies, which is associated with the insignificance of exchange rates. It occurs when assets are formed and funds received from foreign currencies. Therefore, there is a currency risk for all balance sheet and off-balance sheet transactions with foreign currency (Fig. 1). The author examines the methods and models for optimizing the foreign exchange market using a commercial bank as one of the subjects of the foreign exchange market. The basic method of managing market risks is to monitor the growth of the risk, study its dynamics, and analyze the reasons for its change and limitation. The bank of claims regularly evaluates potential surpluses that may arise as a result of negative changes in market minds and establishes and continues to trim the specific limits using the method of exchanging the surplus. c.

4 Figure 1. Types of currency risks The bank's currency risk management system may consist of regulatory documents, policies, regulations, procedures, processes, etc., which are confirmed accordingly to the final form of corporate governance depending on the bank's size and complexity. and his operations. The foreign exchange risk management system must include: 1. policies and regulations for the management of the foreign exchange risk, which may be reviewed and approved in accordance with the form of corporate governance adopted by the bank. Until then, this policy and development may periodically look at each other; 2. the mechanism for managing the bank’s foreign exchange position is consistent with the approval of policies regarding foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange risk management; 3. Forms of information for the sake of clarity, regulation or the relevant collegial bodies of the bank regarding the foreign exchange position across currencies on an individual and aggregate basis.

5 In addition, for more effective management of the currency risk, you can perform a periodic analysis of the bank’s open currency position using the additional risk model “variety/responsibility” to adjust sensitivity to changes in exchange rates in, as well as to implement hedging methods for changing the value of the currency exchange rate. At the same time, in order to more effectively manage the market component of the foreign exchange risk, commercial banks are responsible for preparing reliable data and effective techniques, such as risk adjustment (VaR), stress testing for valuation information about the nature and value of market positions of the bank and for assessing the level of market risk, to which bank the bank lends or lends itself. It is also important to carry out back-testing to compare with the actual results of assessments and assume that the data collected from the data and methods that are more valuable. Any current commercial bank that considers itself an active participant in the foreign exchange market, under the influence of the power system of risk management, may be strongly concerned about the prospects for the stagnation of the VAR methodology. A methodology has been set for clicking on the date of confirmation for food, so that the balance in foreign exchange transactions will be larger than before the specified value. Sometimes, the evidence is based on different mathematical approaches, but it is also possible to operate within the same schemes. At the first stage, it appears that the officials of the rizik, as they understand the stage of unimportance of the profitability of the portfolio. After this, a connection between the portfolio return and the values ​​of risk factors is established. Moreover, this connection may be expressed in a different way, for example, in the form of functional importance or a system of differential relations. Next, a model is identified behind which factors evolve. It can be based on statistical data on the factors of risk. Finally, the future behavior of the portfolio return is modeled with the calculation of the function subdividing the future return values.

6 The sequence of transactions indicated is actually the basis for estimating VаR. The basis for the VAR development lies in the resulting volatility (volatility) of exchange rates. With most of the world's daily news, take the mean square value from the hundreds that can be deduced on the basis of historical data. For hourly horizons that exceed one day, it is assumed that the volatility of exchange rates is proportional to the volatility of the one-year forecast horizon. This allows us to exclude the assessment of the currency risk for the necessary future by scaling the one-day value of VаR. VаR with a one-year horizon T days and a reliable interval x% for the assumption of chaos can be recovered at the current rate: VAR k x T, where: k x correction coefficient (quantile), which indicates the position of the value of the periodic value the middle one, expressed in the number of average square elements; Average square variation (one-day volatility) of the exchange rate in hundreds of banks. At the same time, the author points out that the VаR estimate using the induced formula is only suitable for relatively small annual intervals, in which its accuracy decreases with increasing hour horizons. A straight-line assessment of the currency risk due to the use of VAR technology may cost a small amount of money. The first amount is determined by the size of the open position, which is subject to the risk of foreign currency. In addition, such positions may be converted into national currency at official exchange rates at the time of valuation of the market (this process is called markto-market, or market valuation of the position).

7 Another meaning of the volatility (volatility) of exchange rates. The third development of VAR of the skin from closed positions, expressions of the national currency and actually the current addition of the market price of the position on the currency exchange rate. The fourth term is the value of the bank’s foreign exchange risk (which is not equal to the amount of VAR of the skin from closed currency positions, since the correlation coefficient between changes in exchange rates, as a rule, is not equal to 1 or – 1). Regardless of the positive aspects of the VаR technique, it should be noted that this method is not at all liable to be considered unprepared. The real weaknesses of VaR estimates are the assumption of a reliable level and normality of the analyzed market under the hour of the emerging model. However, a practically new element of the model, introduced into the basic configuration, inevitably imposes new boundaries on the vicinity of the detachable stitches. KRIM TO, Indi -di -di -dimensional character, yak vanity of vitality of the vara vara, allowed to enure the specifice rinkiv, Instrumentye, strategic tsille analiza, and the same is possible for the problems of the Problem. Zokrema, with a wide range of professional participants in the market of power internal models, is based on their additional assessment of how to determine the parameters established during modeling, which may be of a subjective nature. Also, the above-mentioned arguments indicate high prospects and the importance of activating the use of commercial banks to assess the currency risk, which is based on the use of VAR-methods. At the same time, the significance of the remaining ones does not need to be absolutized in order to eliminate the possible one-sidedness of permanently effective systems of foreign exchange risk management.

8 Following the increase in respect, other methods are gradually being adopted by current participants in currency markets and are becoming more effective in practice. Following new approaches to risk management systems, it is clear that there is an added advantage in the fact that the risk of future forecasts of future exchange rates is not less than information of a dynamic nature (historical series prices, indices, indicators, macroeconomic changes), and new information. Vaughn has a fundamentally different character, having a discrete nature (based on principles). This extraction, analysis and introduction into a dynamic forecast will require a lot of other mathematical tools (text processing). Looking at the system of management and insurance of foreign exchange risks, their warehouses can be called several main structural blocks that can ensure a comprehensive approach to the direct activities of a commercial bank. These blocks can be represented by a diagram (Fig. 2). Figure 2. External scheme for managing the bank’s currency reserve

9 The block of approaches to forecasting exchange rates, depending on the scale and prospects of activity to establish how current foreign exchange transactions are, is liable to undermine the development of short-, mid- and long-term forecasts. It is important to note that both theory and practice have developed methods for weekly currency forecasts, and all forecasts are usually based on an analysis of the dynamics of exchange rate factors in both countries and countries, among which are the key ones: price dynamics, balance of payments, what trends in structural policy indicate, reserve positions , political stability and low others. In this system, it is necessary to focus attention on various elements of economic-mathematical modeling. Another block of currency risk management may be related to the analysis of the risk, the economic assessment of its scale and possible financial losses associated with it, and the selection of core functions. Initial approaches, plans and programs, both tactical and strategic. In addition, at this stage, scenarios of the possible development of unpleasant situations are being formed, and the risk groups may be triggered by the functions of the subdivision of the intensity of the crowd (depending on its size). The third block of foreign exchange risk management is related to the appropriate methods and mechanisms for storing its assets. The range of such methods, subdivided by light practice, will remain wide. The most effective and promising methods in banking practice are the following: 1. A method that combines a system of statistical approaches that is used in the business of banks and their accounting department. We are talking about the current mutual insurance of risks to liabilities and assets, conducting transactions directly in foreign currencies, in which operations are carried out, introducing a centralized security system

10 as a currency risk, if certain income and expenses are transferred from specific branches of the bank to its parent structure. 2. Let's expand on foreign practice, and also on the foreign exchange market, the method of insuring against foreign exchange risks, which is based on established forward-type contracts. Apparently, the main advantage in this phase is the fixation of the exchange rate in the agreement, which will allow the bank to operate according to the forecasted future operational activity. 3. An effective method of currency insurance can be the creation of special currency positions, which are traded as a guarantee of future currency transactions. 4. The most important thing was the promotion of the domestic practice of using currency options, the main advantage of which is the right to choose alternative currency options to the contract. We are talking about the possibility of buying or selling one currency instead of another at previously set rates at any hour before the previously set date. 5. To increase the potential for hedging risks with the development of operations such as swaps, which is one of the most effective methods for minimizing the currency risk today. Please follow the exchange rate for both swaps with fixed rates (currency swap), and for swaps with multi-hundredth rates that float. At this stage, an important role is played by the assessment of the equal effectiveness of various methods of risk minimization and the selection of the most effective one. Choosing the optimal method for injecting foreign exchange risks helps formulate a comprehensive strategy for managing the entire complex of risks of a commercial bank. The fourth, final block of connections with the control and adjustment of the results of the implementation of the strategy for managing the currency risk with the understanding of new information. At this stage, an assessment of the effectiveness of the selected methods and tools for risk minimization may take place,

11 there are obvious shortcomings that are obligatory guilty and will be covered in further activities by adjusting the process of risk management itself. Therefore, in the financial sector, it can be assumed that a thorough process of managing the foreign exchange risk is one of the most important tasks. In this case, before solving the problem, it is obligatory to approach it comprehensively, covering all aspects of financial activity. The proposed proposals allow us to thoroughly color the conceptual and organizational basis of the work of the subjects of foreign exchange transactions in order to manage the foreign exchange risk, which will allow them to activate their activities in the foreign exchange market. References: 1. Bugai V.Z. Organizational and economic aspects of optimizing the currency exchange rate / V.Z. Bull. K. Prometheus, p. 2. Virt M.Ya. Regulation of the exchange rate and its optimal regime for Ukraine / M. Ya. Virt // Scientific bulletin of the NLTU of Ukraine Vip S Grüning H. Wang. Analysis of banking risks. System for assessing corporate governance and financial risk management: Prov. from English / H. Van Gruning, S. Brainovich-Bratanovich. M: View “The Whole World”, p. 4. Dvirnik M.V. Problems and prospects for the development of banking activity on the foreign exchange market of Ukraine / M.V. Dvirnik/[Electronic resource]. Access mode: (date of publication:).

12 5. Filipenko T.V. Organizational and legal ambushes of regulation of the currency market of Ukraine / T.V. Filipenko/[Electronic resource]. Access mode: (date of publication:). 6. Yablukov A.I. Methodology for assessing and managing the currency risk based on the indicator VAR (VALUE-AT-RISK) / A.I. Yablokov // Economic and mathematical modeling of socio-economic systems: collection of scientific works of the International Scientific Research Center ITiS Vip. 13. Z Jorion Ph. Financial risk-management: Second edition. / Jorion Ph. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, p.

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UDC 336.64 Kuchumova O.O. Master's student of the 2nd year of commencement National Final Tomsk Polytechnic University Institute of Social and Humanitarian Technologies Russia, Tomsk FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF ENTERPRISE

UDC 336:005.334:336.71:334.758.4 FINANCIAL RISK FORECASTING MODEL FOR A BANKING HOLDING Vorozhun Oleksiy Sergeyovich, Gomel State University named after Francis Skorini, [email protected]

A.ZH.AKHMETOVA METHODS FOR ASSESSING FINANCIAL RISKS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM In the minds of an objective assessment of the risk and the financial and economic costs associated with it, the need for the singer naturally arises

UDC 338.24 Bederina R.A., 3rd year student, Institute of Economics and Management, Kemerovo State University, Russia, Kemerovo. Khvorova E.S., 3rd year student, Institute of Economics and Management, Kemerovo State University, Russia, Kiev

336.774.3 Atroshchenko L.V. manager for the sale of PJSC "Sberbank of Russia" m. Velikiy Kamin CREDIT OPERATIONS AND CREDIT POLICY OF A COMMERCIAL BANK. Abstract: the article is devoted to the main provisions of the credit

COURSE WORK

Currency risks and ways to minimize them

Enter

Every bank cannot completely protect itself from the risk of overcrowding in financial transactions. The history of the development of banking law shows no evidence of neglect or mismanagement of risks, which led to the bankruptcy of banks, and subsequently had a negative impact on the economy of the country.

In the minds of the need for the development of new types of banking services and the emergence of new instruments by banks of other ranks, there is a need for a constant investigation of banking risks that arise from what is being saved not the stability of the banking system and the increase in efficiency in today's minds.

With this active study of international research in Galuzia, the management of banking activities shows that Kazakhstan can quickly become part of the mechanisms, tools and methods that will stagnate with the international fund new practice using the method of systematically improving the efficiency of the banking system.

At this time, the problem of banking risks must be taken into account in connection with the fact that the stability of the banking system largely depends on the efficiency of the financial system and investment processes in the economy іці. An analysis of the problems of banking risks was carried out at the bottom of research of a foreign economic and special nature, based on the work of leading foreign economists: Sinki D.F., Dollana E.D., Campbell K.D., Campbell R.D., Rose P., Matuka J., Putaema B.H., Ozius M., Walravena K.D., Koha T.U., Kingsbury R., McConnell K.R., Whiting D.P. ta in.

A number of Russian authors are still actively working on the problems of banking risks. Scientific research is carried out in the robots of the current Russian authors: Lavrushina O.I., Bora M.Z., Petrenko V.V., Bilikh L.P., Usoskina V.M., Krasavina L.M., Grabovoi P. O.G., Gamidova G.M., Sevruk V.T., Balapanova I.T. ta in.

The method presented by the exchange rate is to identify the peculiarities of managing currency risks in the current banking system of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

As soon as the target is set, we are transferring the most important upcoming tasks:

1. consider the theoretical and methodological principles associated with the problems of currency risks, clarify their place, determine the structure and classification;
2. analyze the activities of JSC “Kaspi Bank” and identify the level of foreign exchange risks for this bank;
3. conduct an analysis of methods for assessing currency risk and bring to practical use the availability of these and other tools;
4. The international evidence of the defeat of foreign exchange banking institutions in the aspect of its corruption in the republic is considered.

The object of investigation was the Astana branch of the bank of another region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, AT “Kaspi Bank”.

1. Theoretical ambushes for managing currency risks

1.1 The essence and types of currency risks

The foreign exchange risk, which includes the risk of exchange rate losses, is associated with the internationalization of the banking market, the creation of transnational enterprises and banking institutions and the diversification of them. The certainty and the possibility of financial losses as a result of fluctuations in exchange rates.

International banking activity is booming:

currency transactions;

zakordonene kredituvannya;

investment activity;

international payments;

international developments;

financing of foreign trade;

insurance of foreign exchange and credit risks;

International guarantees.

The foreign exchange risk is mainly due to the formation of assets and the resulting exchange rates from the foreign currencies of foreign powers. Economic trends and political developments, beginning with changes in currency regulation policies and ending with social tensions, can have a significant impact on the exchange rate. The work with currency futures, options, and swap contracts is poorly organized. The foreign exchange risk is significant for all balance sheet and off-balance sheet transactions with foreign currency.

These transactions are related to the currency risk, which can result in banks receiving additional income and surpluses.

The first attempts to manage the currency risk began in the early 1970s. XX century, when floating courses were introduced.

On its own side, currency risks are structured according to the current order: commercial, conversion, translation, forfeiting risks (Figure 1) [, p. 533].

Commercial risks are associated with the inability and inability of the fighter (guarantor) to pay for his claims.

Conversion riziks are the ceremonies of foreign exchange surpluses for specific transactions. These riziks are divided into economic rizik, transfer rizik, and pleasure rizik.

The economic risk for the company lies in the fact that the value of its assets and liabilities may change more or less (in the national currency) through future changes in the exchange rate.

Figure 1. Classification of currency risks

currency bank rizik management

For the bank, investment in foreign assets is based on the size of the future flow of payments denominated in the national currency. In addition, the amount of payments until repayment for these loans will change when the foreign currency value of the loan is converted into the equivalent of the national currency.

The risk of transferring obligations related to assets and liabilities in foreign currency. If there is a fall in the exchange rate of assets, then the value of assets falls: with a change in the value of assets, the size of the share capital of a company or bank falls. From an economic point of view, the most important is the risk of satisfaction, which looks at the influx of changes in the exchange rate, the future flow of payments, and the future profitability of the company and the bank.

The risk of foreign exchange arises through the insignificance of value in the national currency and foreign exchange in the future. A change in a company's profitability means a change in its creditworthiness, and it is therefore important for the bank to be aware of the clients' currency preferences. In view of the high instability of currency rates, one of the ways to protect against currency risks is to choose the most acceptable currency for the counterparties to the contract. For the exporter and creditor, it is important to obtain a stable currency. The choice of currency can have a significant impact on the efficiency of trading and credit operations.

When choosing a currency for a contract, the following factors are to be considered: forecast of trends in the exchange rate of the currency between the moment of entering into the contract and the date of payment requests; the nature of the goods and services being sold; traditions formed on the commodity market; form of trade organization (one-time agreement, long-term agreement, inter-order agreement).

The foreign exchange conversion rate can be changed by the way of zahisnyh zastosuvannya zahisnyh zherezhen, gold zazherezh, currency zazherezhen (Figure 1).

Zahisny zaserezhenya - negotiable minds that are included behind the years of the parties to the interstate economic interests, which convey the possibility of change and revision of the original minds to the agreement of their victor.

Gold storage became important during and after the First World War in connection with the gold standard in some countries and its actual decline in others. The currencies of these countries began to be valued like gold, as well as the currencies of other countries whose gold standard continued to function. The watchdogs were based on the gold parity of currencies, which is consistent with their gold exchange rate. Concerns about the regulation of parity acted as the minds of the free exchange of penny units for gold, and with the reduction of (gold-currency and gold-dollar) standards. Gold deposits were widely stagnated until the docks of the capitalist countries experienced a decline in support of the market price of gold at the level of the official price. With the collapse of the “golden pool” in 1868. a underground gold market was established, which made the official price of gold unrealistic and put an end to the stagnation of the gold fence.

Currency guarding - when included in a credit or commercial contract of an agreement, the amount of payment of the agreement must be due to a change in the exchange rate relationship between the currency price of the product (currency of the loan) and another , a more stable currency (guarded). Establishing prices and payments in contracts of different currencies is in fact the simplest form of currency control. The price currency is often chosen to be the more stable currency. In case of a special currency exchange rate, the amount that supports payments must be deposited due to changes in the currency exchange rate to maintain one hundred currency prices. In both cases, the amount of payment will change at the same time as the exchange rate of the fixed currency will change. The currency fixed on the basis of the market rate transfers the value of the relationship between currencies to the flow of quotation on the foreign exchange markets. The difference between the buying and selling rates - the margin - is the bank's income, which covers the costs of the business and serves as a means of insuring the foreign exchange risk.

Since the exchange rates of several currencies are often subject to extreme short-term fluctuations, then linking the exchange rate to any one currency is impossible to sufficiently ensure the interests of both exporters and importers. These shortcomings may be due to the breakdown of the multi-currency guard, which transfers the change of the penny crop due to a change in the exchange rate between the currency of the payment and the set of currencies that are collected between the parties.

Setting the average exchange rate of the payment currency to a set of other currencies reduces the likelihood of sudden changes in the payment amount. The inclusion of currencies that have a different level of stability in the mix ensures the interests of both counterparties. The current cat may be based on the analysis of the past dynamics of exchange rates of major currencies, and their current prospects for the term that goes with the term contract.

Translational (accounting) risks arise during the revaluation of assets and liabilities of balance sheets and the balance sheet “Profits and surpluses” of foreign branches of clients and counterparties. These risks lie in the choice of currency exchange rate, the stability and other factors. All banks insure all current transactions at the current rate, and for long-term transactions at the historical rate; Others analyze the risk of financial transactions at the current exchange rate, and others at the historical rate; Still others choose one of two methods of investment and with this help control the totality of their risk operations.

1.2 Risk and foreign exchange transactions

In the current economy, the sphere of risks is completely new and practically unknown. This situation explains the presence of a great number of different types, which often lead to the emergence of one approach to the definition of the concept of “rizik”.

In order to develop the most comprehensive and correct understanding of this term, let us take a closer look at the main scientific approaches.

In the financial and credit encyclopedic dictionary edited by Professor A.G. Bryaznovy points out that the understanding of the risk is that of interpretation (English risk, French risgue from it. risico – go to the Greek rixikon – skele: first “rikuvati” – maneuver between the rocks) – 1) reliability of the present go with negative inheritances; 2) the risk of unforeseen expenses, surpluses, under-recovery of income, and profits against the planned option.

Algin A.P. We appreciate that “the risk is an activity connected with the insignificance in a situation of inevitable choice, a process in which it is possible to carefully and clearly assess the availability of the transferred the result is failure and achievement of goals.”

In case of non-transferable options for the bank, three economical results are possible: negative (additional expenses, surpluses and expenses), zero (no changes), positive (wins, gains and benefits).

The most important thing for a bank is a positive result, but, as a rule, the presence of risks as a result of untransmitted changes in the situation tends to offset negative results. To eliminate risks, it is necessary to determine the extent to which the bank of thefts consists of surpluses, expenses and non-transferable expenses.

It is important to note that banking activity is impossible without removing the cards. This is normal for financial institutions that carry out intermediary operations, as well as banks, which quickly get cash, are required to make payments to depositors, pay for insurance for obtaining loans and positions from other financial institutions, pay for many banking services, consultants, auditing companies and other activities operational expenses.

If we look at the reasons for the manifestation of unplanned losses, they can appear in immediate forms: advances in payments to depositors as a result of changes in the market situation, the emergence of a shortage of credit resources and as a result of this shift. about market returns, increased payments for workers, inflation in the country, which is bound to result to increased costs.

The bank runs are associated with the under-recovery of income and the loss of expenditures from planned indicators. This is a result of unwritten or unclear planning and analysis of future operations, failures, unpleasant escape of situations or simply the impermanence of the situation, as well as when carrying out a number of new and highly corizic operations action without creating a hedging system in the form of guarantees and reserves. The risks of such losses, associated with irrational investment and allocation of funds, inaccurate assessment of market opportunities and insecurity, will soon threaten to result in serious inconsistencies both in the financial plan and in the plan. I imagine that in the end it can be spent.

Spending is not transferring a reduced profit to the bank, so spending acts as an additional indicator, and you will receive all the power of expenses, including expenses and surpluses. The most important type of spending is the one that can lead to bankruptcy of the bank.

However, from the above-mentioned understanding, one can come to an uneasy conclusion that the concept of “banking rizik” can be identified as follows. Banking rizik - the insignificance of the bank's activity, is associated with the possibility of additional expenses, the guilt of surpluses and the appearance of expenses in connection with the addition of standard banking operations. The risks stem from the lack of clear planning of operations, the failure to adjust regulations and standards, as a result of favors on the part of the staff, as well as deception on the part of counterparties and counter-partners of the bank.

Currency transactions are subject to government and banking security and control. In countries with frequently convertible currencies and exchanges for financial transactions, the size of the foreign exchange position of banks in relation to the national currency is one of the objects of exchange control. During periods of significant currency instability, limits may shorten: limits may also be established on term transactions - for sums and for terms. However, even with the introduction of full currency convertibility in Western European countries, monitoring of the foreign exchange transactions of banks is preserved. Moreover, since the 1980s, there has been a strengthening of controls to prevent the concentration of banks' foreign exchange exposures on their balance sheets and off-balance sheet items. The necessity of this provision is demonstrated by the collapse and bankruptcy of a number of 70-year-old banks through losses in foreign exchange transactions. The underlying trend of regulation is to increase the linkage of foreign exchange risks with the overall balance of banks.

Foreign exchange operations of banks are divided into 5 categories. Let's take a look at their skin.

Operation "SPOT". Operations are carried out in the form of cooking. Moreover, it is important that “SPOT” operations are the most profitable for bank clients, accounting for approximately 90% of all foreign exchange transactions.

In terms of terms, currency transactions are also subject to interbank stagnation. Interbank terms were called “forward”.

Please with the "option". Among the terms with foreign currency there are those with an “outright” - a mental delivery of currency on a specific date, and those with an “option” - with a mental non-fixed delivery date.

“SWAP” operations are foreign exchange operations that involve the purchase and sale of foreign currency at the forward rate.

Arbitration grounds are used for goods, valuable papers, and currencies.

So, we briefly looked at the basic concepts of foreign exchange transactions, and at the different types of foreign exchange transactions.

Banking activity, as well as financial activity, will require management, without any impossible goals to be achieved by the credit institution. The most important economical method for a bank is to achieve maximum profits, due to the nature of the bank as a commercial organization.

However, this strategy is focused on the long-term functioning of the bank, and not on capturing in-line profits at any price. Thus, the meta-banking activity is the withdrawal of long-term profits, which will ensure the growth of the bank, the possibility of expanding the package of services, increasing the quality of the service, increasing the capital, which results in an increase in the what is the share price of the bank.

The owners of the banks, which have invested in business developments, have invested in the growth of the government's capital, and their income, otherwise the credit institution may face difficulties in obtaining new capital in order to secure a lot of growth is coming. For the rational allocation of investments and their effectiveness, the main principles of risk management are used, which aim to maximize the value of the assets contributed by shareholders, while saving a pleasant profit. listen to rizik.

This meta transfers that net income, taken away as a result of speculative activity, becomes less valuable for the investor equal to the main income, which can be taken away with proper management of the credit institution, leaving the article The potency and possibility of winning large speculative profits is questionable.

The implementation of this goal can be achieved through the organization of effective management and control over banking activities and focuses on managing the financial risks of banks as an invisible part of banking Identity and key direction of banking management.

The risk management system is a scientific and methodological complex of approaches to the management of a credit organization, direct identification and assessment of the risk, with specific methods and methods for creating the minds of a functioning bank, maximizing the benefits of power capital, the benefits of clients and partners, and the provision of profitability.

Now it’s important to note that the process of risk management means treating the risk itself to minimize it, and not just doing something else. Well, if we talk about managing the risks, then the work is carried out with the already accepted risks, but it is possible to see the possibility of the culpability of the risks that have not been sealed at this time, with the possible stagnation of different management methods before them.

Another result of the stagnant system of managing the financial risks of banks is the support of the current level of profitability of active operations that are carried out when the level of the risk is acceptable.

The risk management system is oriented towards solving immediate problems:

1. Ensuring optimal balance between the profitability of banking operations and their riskiness. Profitability is one of the most important criteria for praising an investment decision, because, as a rule, operations associated with a high risk generate a high profit, and a low risk comes with low income. The downside of the risk is the possibility of chopping off additional income, which is a payment for the risk, while the focus on minimizing the risk will lead to a decrease in income.
2. Encouraging the liquidity of bank accounts at a sufficient level to optimize income. Liquidity and the ability of the bank to satisfy the transferred and rapported needs of clients for special or unprepared penny sums in connection with the present term of repayment of crops.
3. Satisfaction with the norms of capital sufficiency. In banking activity, the bank's capital has two important functions. On the one hand, in the event of a collapse of a credit institution, the power capital is used to pay off debts to depositors, and on the other hand, the amount of power capital is included in the main regulatory measures that are transferred to the National Bank, which intersects the scale and carrying out major active operations.

We can safely say that the capital of the bank is of equal importance to the risks. Current risk management has adopted an approach where the expenses incurred (mainly in the loan portfolio) are covered by the reserves ratio, which is transferred to the bank. Unrecovered expenses may be fully covered for the bank of banknotes. Therefore, the amount of capital is increased by the size of the risks accepted by the bank.

The National Bank regulates the amount of the bank's capital, vikoryst and the standard for the sufficiency of the capital is consistent with the relevant Instructions dated September 30, 2005. No. 358 “About obligatory standards of banks.”

Given that all banking operations and the risks behind them are closely intertwined and interconnected, the balance of the risks is gradually changing with the influx of dynamic market volatility. In connection with this, the risk management system must be oriented towards identifying deposits between different types of banking operations and the risk of them and, at the highest level, inflowing into the risk of low-impact market factors.

The tasks set by risk management are implemented through an organized risk management system, the basis of which is the subject and object of management.

The subject of management is a special group of bank managers (managers), who are empowered with the right, through the establishment of methods, to act directly on the control object. In some credit institutions, this function is assigned to the internal control service, asset and liability management departments, risk management, economic protection, financial and analytical service of the bank, and department Limit policy and risk control etc.

The influx of human officials into the risk management system is difficult to overestimate, since decisions are made about the adoption of either the operational risk, whose assessment and management are carried out by the bank’s specialists, which provide theoretical knowledge and practical benefits. view Well, the characteristic feature of risk management is subjectivism, then. the initial influx of human factor during the execution of the operation and acceptance of the risk by the credit institution.

For the successful implementation of the task of facing the risk management system, the bank must engage in the organization, development and management of human resources that are in its order. Preparation, skills and information for staff are subject to the obligations of bank operations.

The risk manager identifies banking operations related to the risk, and evaluates which risks and in which sizes can be accepted by the bank, and thus determines whether the bank's profitability is actually transferred ї operations її riskiness. In addition, it is often the case that the possibility of accepting a risk is determined by the collectively related bodies of the bank’s management (credit committee, asset and liability management committee), which constitute the main responsibility of the commercial bank. .

The object of management is banking operations related to risks, as well as economical transactions that occur between the bank and government entities in the process of accepting risks.

It is significant that financial risks in banks arise from both active and passive operations. We mean that, on the one hand, the bank, which deposits funds from other assets, accepts the first risk associated with the investment of the deposits of funds (credit and investment risk), otherwise - being a financial intermediary And it’s important to work with the money you’ve earned , the bank is required to return the bank's clients' funds to the bank.

The disruption of the calendar of payments for crops and the payment of funds before the deadline is accompanied by untransferred risks, which necessitates the need for correction of active risk operations.

However, the most important for the bank are those types of risks that are directly related to the ongoing banking operations. These include risks related to the bank's reputation, competition in the banking industry and the potential for losses to staff.

Therefore, the most important problem of managing financial risks lies in the development of methods for managing other types of risks by identifying, localizing, controlling and controlling this and other types of risks to minimize their impact. woo. When formulated, both the specifics of the activity of a commercial bank and the risks attached to a particular bank, as well as the methods of their assessment, management and control procedures for the skin type of risk are covered.

An important role is played by clear demarcation of responsibility and distribution of responsibilities in the process of identification and risk management.

According to doctors, it can be said that the risk management system consists of the following functions:

1. methodological: the development of internal banking regulations, the system was able to ensure consistency and document flow, the system was of greater importance in the decision-making process;
2. analytical: creation of a single information and analytical space for the bank, analysis of banking operations in terms of their profitability, efficiency, riskiness, assessment of possible expenses and the likelihood of their occurrence;
3. regulating: asset and liability management, pricing of banking products and services, implementation of credit policy, establishment of internal banking standards and limits;
4. control: internal banking monitoring, internal and external audit, activities of the internal control service and security service.

Let's take a look at the methods of managing currency exchange rates.

Diversification- distribution of assets and liabilities among various components, both on the level of financial instruments and their warehouses by reducing risk.

This method is based on a portfolio approach, which conveys the view of the bank’s assets and liabilities as elements of a single whole - a portfolio, which has characteristics of risk and profitability, which allows for the effective optimization of financial risk parameters in banks.

This method of reducing the foreign exchange rate creates a permanent reduction in the fluctuations of foreign currency exchange rates. And as soon as it is extremely difficult to transfer the international routes of such payments, banks, in order to change the risk of losing through an unexpected change in exchange rates, go to the diversification of assets denominated in foreign currency.

The main forms of diversification are as follows:

1. portfolio of valuable papers (formation of a portfolio of a structure that meets the needs of the bank, on the one hand, a hundred capital investments have been removed, on the other - guaranteed capital growth in the form of an increase in the exchange rate of valuable papers from the security yum have a nice match with Rizik);
2. credit portfolio (granting loans in smaller amounts to a larger number of clients for saving the overall loan obligation);
3. currency box for the bank (formation of a currency box using several currencies, changing expenses depending on the fall in the exchange rate of one currency);
4. in order to obtain funds (receipt of deposits, interbank loans in other amounts, placement of valuable papers among a large number of investors by changing the balance of pre-term forex shtiv).

Hedjuvannya(English heaging - hedge) is used in banking, stock exchange and commercial practice for the purpose of various methods of risk insurance. Thus, hedging is aimed at reducing the risk of losses, which, with the change in market officials (prices for financial instruments, exchange rates, interest rates) leads to the stagnation of early entries: futures transactions, options, SWAP operations.

In fact, hedging means the creation of financial transactions involving securities, currencies or real assets. When placing futures contracts and options, hedging acts as a form of insurance for the price and profit from unexpected changes, so that sharp fluctuations can be smoothed out.

The choice of specific management methods or their implementation depends on the type of risk, the specifics of the bank’s activities, the financial sector, etc.

Hedging for the exchange of penny funds.A contract that serves to insure against the risk of changes in exchange rates (prices) is called a “hedge” (English hedge - fence, fence). The subject of government that carries out hedging is called a “hedger”. There are two hedging operations: advance and decrease.

Hedgehogging for advancement,or hedging with a purchase, an exchange operation involving the purchase of term contracts or options. Be careful in these situations if you need to insure yourself against a possible increase in prices (rates) in the future. It allows you to set the purchase price much earlier than the actual product has been added.

It is acceptable that the price of a product (exchange rate or valuable papers) will increase after three months, and the product will be needed within that hour. To compensate for the costs of the transferred increase in prices, it is necessary to buy at the current price a term contract associated with this product, and sell it three months later at the moment when the product is purchased. Since the price of a product and the terms of the contract associated with it change proportionally in one direction, then purchases before the contract can be sold at a higher price by as much as the price of the product increases up to that time. In this way, a hedger who hedges on movements insures himself against a possible price rise in the future.

Hedgevannya on the decline,Or hedging by sale is an exchange transaction involving the sale of a term contract. The hedger intends to engage in future sales of goods, in connection with the market, by selling a term contract or option on the exchange, insuring itself against a possible reduction in prices from the future. It is acceptable that the price of a product (exchange rate, valuable papers) decreases after three months, and the product will need to be sold itself. To compensate for transfer costs due to a decrease in price, the hedger sells a term contract today at a high price, and when selling his product three months later, when the price has dropped, he buys the same term contract at a price what has decreased (maybe on the insoles). Thus, the hedge is set up for a decrease in these situations, if the goods need to be sold later.

The hedger aims to reduce the risk of influx of price inconsistency on the market for additional purchase or sale of term contracts. This makes it possible to fix the price and earn income and spend more money. In what case, the connection with the hedges is unknown. Take it from speculators, then. acceptances, like for the singer, behind the insurance of the risk.

Speculation over the market of term contracts plays a great role. By taking on the risk of retaliation when trading on price differences, they will end up playing the role of a price stabilizer. When purchasing term contracts on the exchange, the speculator makes a guarantee deposit, which determines the value of the speculator's risk. If the price of a product (currency rate, valuable papers) has decreased, the speculator who has previously purchased a contract spends an amount equal to the guarantee deposit. If the price has increased, the speculator turns over the amount that is equal to the guarantee deposit, and takes additional income from the difference in the prices of the goods and the purchased contract.

The presence of hedging may be due to two reasons. First of all, the bank may not know about the risks or the possibility of changing these risks. Alternatively, the bank may expect that exchange rates and interest rates will no longer remain unchanged or will change to their value. As a result, the bank is speculative: if its calculations turn out to be correct, it wins, if it does not recognize the run-ins.

One of the disadvantages of this type of hedging (changing all risks) is to pay the total amount spent on commissions and premiums of options. Vibration hedging can be one of the ways to reduce waste costs. Another way is to insure risks only after rates and rates have changed to a constant level. It is important to note that the company can withstand unfavorable changes, but if it reaches the permissible limit, the position of the trail is completely hedged to avoid further excesses.

This approach allows you to eliminate costs for risk insurance in situations where exchange rates and multi-hundred rates are not stable or change favorably.

Risks associated with the exchange of currencies may be subject to additional pricing policies, which include the level of quoted prices and the currencies in which the price is expressed. It is also urgent to pour into the rizik to put in terms of withdrawing and paying pennies.

Experts see the following types of market instruments for financial management:

1. Forward contracts are directly related to the trading of physical goods. Remnants of the stench linger on the respect of the Risik (to trust the sides), then only trade partners who trust one another. Forward contracts can also help eliminate short-term financing for exports.
2. Futures, as well as swaps between banks and associates; Its main function is price hedging. Like forward contracts, futures can be set up to attract short-term export credits.
3. Slot - date of currency exchange (currency delivery date) of another business day from the moment of placement of the slot. The main purpose of speculative interests is to reach the spot market itself through greater mobility.
4. Options are an instrument, an agreement that gives the option buyer the right to buy or sell the underlying product at a specified price.
5. SWAPs between intermediaries and distributors, as well as loans and bonds, “linked” to commodity prices; Their main function is to ensure hedging of prices and the influx of finance.

Forward contract- this is about the purchase and sale of a specific product at a certain date at a future date at a set price. Most of the goods come from abroad. Each contract is formed individually. The risk of breach of contract is subject to resentment by both parties. The contract is followed by delivery of physical goods. The primary term is until fate. The main traders are those who have established long-term trading links, as well as trading partners who work on rich trade and trust one another.

Futures contractThis is about the purchase and sale of a specific product at a certain date at a future date at a set price. Markets are available on exchanges through the Russian Federation Chambers. All contracts are standardized. At the moment the contract is concluded, the payment of margin occurs. There is no reason for violating the agreement. An open position may be closed any day. Physical delivery of goods is not necessary. Terms - up to 18 (up to 36) months. The main traders are hedgers (growers, distributors, processors, traders), speculators (physical and legal entities), as well as market participants who want to protect themselves from the risk of non-violation of the contract by the other party.

Spot- please, the regulations for which will take place the next day after signing the contract. It is most often used for hedging against fluctuations in exchange rates. The real post is not transferred. The advantage is the speed of enforcement, the presence of commissions. The main traders are hedgers (grocers, distributors, processors, traders), speculators (physical and legal entities).

Option -the right to sell a specific product at a later date (or earlier) at a set price. Please like the stockbrokers, and for the sake of the stockbrokers. In cross-border trading there is an individual arrangement of contracts. At the time the contract is concluded, the buyer pays the seller a premium (option price).

If the option is a cash option, the buyer risks that the seller does not stand his ground. The basis of current commodity options is always the futures contract, and not the commodity itself. The terms of exchange-traded options are matched with the lines of futures contracts (read until the end). The buyer limits the maximum amount of surplus, and also the profit.

Purchases of options are especially important for traders, traders and traders from guilty countries; as well as those who are willing to pay a premium (sometimes even higher) to change the risk.

Please SWAP- A treat about exchanging singing koshta through singing intervals. This is a series of mutually interconnected forward contracts from the market. Please settle through the bank or a great trading organization. Contracts are concluded individually. The exchange of funds will occur immediately after the agreement is concluded. The grievances of the parties are reflected in the penalty of his misdeed. Delivery of physical goods is not transferred (it is simply a financial instrument). Terms – from 6 months to 15 days (usually from 1 to 4 days).

The main traders are hedgers who engage in financial transactions, traders who want to fix their spending at the most important hour in order to promote competitiveness.

Currency futures began to stagnate for the first time in 1972. on the Chicago currency market. Currency futures are a term on the stock exchange that involve the purchase and sale of a foreign currency that is fixed at the time of setting the exchange rate through the foreign currency. The significance of foreign exchange futures in a forward operation is that:

1.Futures – trading in standard contracts.

1. The obov'yazkova mental future is a guarantee deposit.
2. Distributions between counterparties are carried out through the clearing house at the foreign exchange exchange, which acts as an intermediary between the parties and at the same time as a guarantor of satisfaction.

The advantages of futures over a forward contract are its high liquidity and stable quotation on the foreign exchange exchange. In addition to futures, exporters may be able to hedge their operations.

Purchasing or selling foreign exchange futures allows you to avoid potential losses that may arise as a result of fluctuating exchange rates for the benefit of your clients.

Please let the slot from futures on the interbank market run for 12 months per river. When opening positions with clients (forwards, options, swaps), banks are required to hedge on the exchange-traded futures market.

In the foreign exchange futures market, the hedger - the one who buys the futures contract - takes away the guarantee that, depending on the rate of foreign currency on the spot market, he can buy it at the best rate fixed by the futures contract. . Thus, the spot gains are compensated by the hedger with profits on the futures foreign exchange market for advances in the exchange rate of foreign currencies, etc. There is also a regularity - the exchange rate over the spot market always tends to move closer to the futures market rate due to the proximity to the term of the futures contract.

Another type of term is the SWAP term, which means the exchange of one currency into another for the current period and a combination of a ready spot term and a forward term. Resentments are settled immediately with one and the same partner at fixed rates in advance. SWAP is considered as excluding the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates.

Because SWAPs are useful for banks, as long as they create uncovered currency positions, the bank's obligations on foreign currency are avoided. SWAP objectives:

raising the necessary currency for international transactions;

1. current policy of diversification of foreign exchange reserves;
2. maintaining the singing surpluses on the flow racks;
3. Satisfying the client's needs in foreign currency and foreign currency.

Central banks are especially active before SWAP operations. They are using them to temporarily bolster their foreign exchange reserves during currency crises and conduct currency interventions.

A foreign exchange option is an agreement between the buyer of the option and the seller of currencies, which gives the buyer the right to buy or sell at the current exchange rate an amount of currency within a specified hour for the city, which the seller pays.

Currency options are introduced so that the buyer cannot insure himself against expenses associated with changes in the exchange rate directly.

The special feature of the option as an insurance property is the risk of the seller, which stems from the transfer by it of the currency risk of the exporter and investor. By incorrectly pricing the option rate, the seller runs the risk of finding out that he has lost the premium that he has lost. Therefore, the seller of the option must first lower its rate and increase the premium, which may be unpleasant for the buyer.

To insure currency, interest and investment risks, the remaining time is also to choose low new financial instruments: futures and options (options with price papers), consideration of the future interest rate, issue of securities papers additional insurance minds and others.

These insurance methods allow exporters and investors, burdened by competitive struggle in the markets, to transfer currency, credit and interest rates to banks for the purpose of receiving on For yourself, these types of risks are one of the forms of taking away the Profit. Transactions with new financial instruments, as a rule, are concentrated in high-end financial centers due to the fact that the legislation of certain countries encourages their stagnation. Such methods of risk insurance today are developing dynamically and there are persistent growth trends looming. The use of new terms for insuring the risks of external economic activity allows clients to more accurately assess the remaining insurance coverage.

In industrialized countries, specialized expert firms provide professional advice to investors and exporters, promoting their recommendations for optimal hedging of investments and in foreign currency (which whether, in which term, in which currencies). In addition, the banks themselves, having a staff of analysts and forecasts for the collapse of exchange rates, are actively trying to promote services from comprehensive management of client risks. The hedging process significantly affects the supply and position on the market of foreign exchange terms, putting pressure on the rates of new types of currencies, especially during the period of important predicted trends in the development of their rates.

Another method of managing the currency risk is to analyze the dynamics of exchange rates. Such analysis is both fundamental and technical.

A fundamental analysis of the dynamics of exchange rates comes from the assumption that the main changes in exchange rates occur under the influx of macroeconomic officials in the development of the economies of the foreign currency issuers. Analysts, who call themselves fundamentalists, are important to monitor on a regular basis basic indicators of macroeconomic developments in other countries and predict the collapse of exchange rates in the long-term perspective.

Macroeconomic factors can be applied to 3 and 4 types of currency. To forecast the collapse of these exchange rates, changes in basic indicators and the exchange rate of foreign currencies are analyzed.

A technical analysis of the reasons is based on the fact that macroeconomic indicators in the short and mid-term perspective are little affected by changes in exchange rates. Moreover, exchange rates can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using an additional method of technical analysis, which is based on a mathematical system. Technical analysis follows the trend of changing exchange rates and provides signals for buying and selling.

2. The proper practice of managing currency accounts (using the example of Kaspi Bank JSC)

2.1 Specifics of the bank and its banking policy

Bank is a universal commercial bank that actively operates on the interbank market and provides a new range of high-tech services to large corporate clients, medium and small businesses and the population. Bank is included in dozens of great banks of the republic.

Over the past three years, the Bank has achieved significant results. During 2005-2009, the bank's assets grew more than 4 times to 65.4 billion tenge, its capital increased 5.5 times, having accumulated 8.9 billion tenge at the end of last year [, p. 16]. Behind the size of the power capital Bank of Posiv 7th place among banks in Kazakhstan.

The main directions for the development of JSC “Kaspi Bank”:

expansion of the client base with the help of such resources: - large corporations affiliated with Russia; - medium-sized and other enterprises that require loans and prompt cash management services; - A population that represents great potential for expanding the deposit base and diversifying the loan portfolio;

an increase in the profitability of assets and capital, in support of high liquidity, the use of current methods for managing all types of risks and, as a result, balance and diversification. Achievable increase in profits due to the modernization of technology, expansion of the scope of activity and increase in the scope of services.

increase in power capital for the acquisition of new shareholders and valuable papers, which will allow increasing the size of assets. First, investments will be made in such areas of the economy that are developing dynamically, such as the agricultural sector, civil engineering, machinery, petrochemicals, transport and communications, etc.

compliance with international standards of banking, retail business, and timely introduction of new financial products.

support for new branches for maintaining the position of economic efficiency in the development of the bank's division. The creation of new branches is due to the Bank's additional efforts through technical training, personnel training, and the creation of an effective system for the interaction of all structural units.

promotion of professional level to the staff of the central office of the Bank, all its branches and departmental cash centers. Improved skills in the work of the team, which ensures the development and value of business.

Based on the efficiency of professional activity and adherence to the norms of corporate ethics, by making its contributions to good powers, JSC “Kaspi Bank” intends to improve its position in the market and create a basis for further plans Great growth.

For example, the third quarter of 2010. The total value of assets of Kaspiisky Bank was 65.4 billion Kazakh tenge. As such, the bank was the ninth largest commercial bank in Kazakhstan, accounting for approximately 3% of the assets of the country's banking system. The main type of activity of the bank is banking services to corporate clients, since 2009. Bank "Caspian" also began to actively enter the market of general banking services, first launching an express lending program in Kazakhstan.

2.2 Methods for minimizing foreign exchange risks at JSC Kaspi Bank

Today, the bank has close business contacts with most of the largest banks and financial institutions abroad, including a clear credit line, for which the bank has the ability to finance export-import operations of its clients, and also receives syndicated loans for these purposes (2001 and 2005 years) and organizes club grounds for other projects (2009-2010 years). If possible, bank clients can obtain short-, medium- and long-term financing from the following routes:

prefinancing the export of goods from the cheese sector;

Import of live goods and services;

Import of capital goods.

The total amount of the branch's income for 2010, without accounting for income received from the management of clients of the Head Bank, amounted to 182.386 million tenge. Income from foreign exchange transactions – 374 thousand. tenge or 0.2% (Table 6 and Malyunok 3).

Table 1 – Results of the activities of the Moscow branch of JSC Kaspi Bank in foreign exchange transactions for 2009-2010

Come and vitratitis. tengeStructureIncome (surplus) from revaluation of foreign currency and gold (net) 3740.2% Total amount of income 182386100%

Malyunok 3. Part of income from foreign exchange transactions with the branch of JSC "Kaspi Bank" Astani city

Transactions with the purchase and sale of foreign currency amounted to 1.07 million tenge (0.58%).

Overall, the bank's results of activity in foreign exchange transactions (Table 2) show that the foreign exchange transactions of JSC "Kaspi Bank" are cash flows, and in 2010, cash flows increased at least 2 times (Figure 4). This is explained by the depreciation of the US dollar since 2010.

Table 2 – Results of activities of JSC “Kaspi Bank” in foreign exchange transactions for 2009-2010, thousand. tenge

Income and expenses 2009 Ryk 2010 Ryk Rate of growth Income (surplus) from the revaluation of foreign currency and gold (net) -30712-579061.89 At once net income (insurance) 68378018194652.66

Figure 4. Dynamics of foreign currency revaluation

We will analyze the credit operations of the Moscow branch of the bank across currencies (Table 3).

Table 3 - Structure of position portfolio in currencies, thousand. tenge

Indicators 01/01/2010 to date as of 01/01/2010 to date% Loans issued in tenge752.31975,81.437.19880.6Loans issued in US dollars238.73624,2346.63519 100

While in 2009 the growth rate of loans denominated in US dollars was 24.2%, in 2010 the growth rate dropped to 19%.

The average interest rate for loans is 19.9% ​​in tenge, and 15.2% in foreign currency (Table 4).

Table 4 - Average interest rate on deposits for 2010 Ryk

Type of position by term Seen since the beginning Amount of loans in tenge The rate on tenge is of average importance Amount of loans in currency Average interest rate on loans in currency Short term (up to 1 term) 6166061490619120,8125987422 21 77861416.9At once9608895657041120.4303848416.4

The medium-important interest rate for tenge positions was 20.4% of real terms, and for foreign currency - 16.4% of real terms (Figure 6).

Malyunok 6. Average interest rates for loans in the currency and tenge

The river bank rate for deposits of physical and legal entities is of secondary importance (Table 5 and Table 7):

deposits before receiving national and foreign currency - 0%,

for term deposits in the national currency - 12.29%, in US dollars - 8.01% and euro - 5.64%.

Table 5 - The average interest rate for deposits of physical and legal entities

Type of deposit Seen from the beginning Received from the beginning of deposits from the tenge Average interest rate on deposits from the tenge Received deposits from the currency, from the yew. tg. The river % rate on deposits in foreign currency is of average importance 3043677599.8327728486.37 Umovni0169242.852463.81 Razom4341391108312191 ,15188221351.38

Malyunok 7. Average rates for deposits in currencies and tenge

In addition to credit and deposit operations in foreign currency, the Capital Branch also carries out operations with prepared foreign currency. The population's demand for foreign currency, especially dollars, is great. In connection with this, the ready-made foreign currency, which is rejected, is purchased by JSC “Kaspi Bank” on the interbank market.

In 2010, the following foreign currencies were sold: USD – 56,800,823 US dollars; EUR – 2779986 euro; RUR – 29,563,608.52 Russian rubles. Purchased foreign currency: USD – 33,945,400 US dollars; EUR – 989459 euro; RUR - 28051163 Russian rubles.

Purchased foreign currency on the interbank market: USD - 16,670,000 US dollars, EUR - 1,240,000 euros. Sold on the interbank market of ready-made foreign currencies: USD – 500,000 US dollars.

The overall dynamics of the current foreign currency is presented in Table 11 and Table 8.

Table 11 - Transactions with prepared foreign currency

2009 Ryk2010 RykRichny obsyag purchases, million tenge40906055610996River obsyag sales, million tenge41192886128944

Figure 8. Dynamics of trade in foreign currency

As a result of the operation on the market of ready-made foreign currency, the filiia deducted income to the total amount of 70,794.0 thousand. tenge, vitrati became 33,808.0 thousand. tenge

The bank accepts a risk associated with the influx of prevailing exchange rates, financial conditions and value flows. The Board of Directors sets limits in line with the risk that is accepted in terms of currencies and in general both overnight and day positions, and controls their extension on a regular basis. Table 12 provides an analysis of the Bank's currency exchange rate as of April 31, 2010. Assets and obligations to the Bank are displayed in the table for the balance sheet in terms of currencies.

Table 12 – Assets of JSC “Kaspi Bank” by currencies by country as of 12/31/2010.

ASSETS Tenge dollars US European currencies and their equivalents 1473164.31177898.944090.8258677.12953831 Borrowing of other banks 1030.5216934.7165 328952041836 838.4052321588 Investment securities available for sale 2521200.8204229.182002725430 Accrued interest income 000 Other assets 11362289.3265 822426509 Principal osti1866911001866911TOTAL ASSETS3481414245423970,72014196,5259922,882512232Costs of other banks1856967911 449248 Clients' accounts 28661974,918016879,7188156,1894373,447761384 Other position funds 485034,71159416,21537755,1031820222 16878,4365 263.5123945.24634800Zobov'yazanya with a line-up CPN6240300062403Zobov'yazanya at once34995092.735499154.13577424.51018369.775090041Net currency position-180950 ,79924816.6- 1563227.9-758446.974612 4.02315123.360709.45318536168 The bank issued loans and advances in foreign currency. Due to the penny flows held by the client, the increase in the rates of foreign currencies in the Kazakh tenge can negatively affect the client's ability to repay loans, which, in turn, increases the amount of money The severity of the culpability of credits.

Table 13 – Assets of JSC “Kaspi Bank” by currencies by country as of 12/31/2010.

ASSETS US Tenge Dollars European Currencies Net Currency Position 1837683.55009 2550575251.97422191 Credit Loan 2909906.9973585011374294762581

3. Problems and improvement of the efficiency of currency risk management in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The risk management function of JSC “Kaspi Bank” operates in relation to financial risks (credit, market, geographical, currency, liquidity and interest rates), operational and legal risks.

The main functions of financial risk management are setting risk limits and ensuring that limits are established until they are established. The assessment of the accepted risk is also the basis for the optimal allocation of capital to the investment risk, pricing of the operation and evaluation of the results of the activity. Operational and legal risk management functions are responsible for ensuring the reliable functioning of internal policies and procedures by minimizing operational and legal risks.

Analysis of methods for managing currency risks, allowing us to develop a strategy for minimizing currency risks for JSC Kaspi Bank.

To combat the risks on the foreign exchange markets, the Bank adopted the following strategy:

promotion of control over potential risks of currency exchange rates;

development of a wide variety of ways to reduce foreign exchange risks;

set boundaries behind potential potential cash flows for other banks or behind payment lines.

Due to the fact that Kaspi Bank's foreign exchange operations reduced their profitability in 2010 due to the depreciation of the dollar, a strategy for restructuring loans in foreign currency was implemented, which transfers the depreciation loans, which are issued in US dollars, and the purchase of programs lending in euros. This strategy will help reduce the level of currency exchange rate due to the fall in the dollar exchange rate and increase the share of loans from stable currencies.

Another proposal is the establishment of limits on an open currency position, which will allow for possible disruption of changes in exchange rates.

Introducing these positions to foreign exchange movements can reduce the risk of potential run-ups by 50-65%.

Visnovok

With the expansion of the areas of activity of commercial banks, the number and types of risks that they face are also growing. It cannot be said that Kazakh banks are already facing all the risks associated with world practice, however, their number is growing, and there is a problem for the Kazakh banking system to reach new and fundamental levels This galusa has not had a day yet.

This work examines theoretical principles about the replacement of bank foreign exchange risks, forms and possible methods of managing them.

JSC "Kaspi Bank" is the only bank in the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is part of the alliance of the strongest Russian regional financial institutions of Moscow, Siberia and the Far East. The main goal of its activity is to provide clients and partners with a full range of capabilities that will benefit from the current market. Bank is included in the largest banks in Kazakhstan. As of now, the republic has 30 filias, 61 rozrakhunka-cash divisions. The bank mainly serves small and medium-sized businesses. The priority areas are the development of the financial system, servicing the oil and gas sector and trade transactions with Russia.

JSC “Kaspi Bank” holds the second license from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan to conduct banking operations in tenge and foreign currency.

JSC "Kaspi Bank" conducts international trade operations: advising and issuing various types of letters of credit, guarantees and invoices of Kazakhstani and foreign banks for the account of domestic banks and customers of JSC "Kaspi Bank", as well as the development and publication of letters of credit and guarantees for tensile and foreign currencies.

Today, the bank has close business contacts with most of the largest banks and financial institutions abroad, including a clear credit line, for which the bank has the ability to finance export-import operations of its clients, and also receives syndicated loans for these purposes (2001 and 2005 years) and organizes club grounds for other projects (2009-2010 years).

For currency transactions carried out by JSC “Kaspi Bank”, the Astana Vikorist branch includes deposits and exchange transactions.

The total amount of the branch's income for 2010, without accounting for income received from the management of clients of the Head Bank, amounted to 182.386 million tenge. Income from foreign exchange transactions – 374 thousand. tenge or 0.2%. Transactions with the purchase and sale of foreign currency amounted to 1.07 million tenge (0.58%).

The bank's results of activity in foreign exchange operations show that the foreign exchange operations of JSC Kaspi Bank are profitable, and in 2010 the growth of foreign exchange increased almost twice as much. This is explained by the depreciation of the US dollar since 2010.

Conducted An analysis of credit operations of the Moscow branch of the bank in terms of currencies showed that while in 2009 the share of loans in US dollars was 24.2%, then in 2010 the won decreased to 19%. The interest rate on loans is of average importance; in tenge it is 19.9%, in foreign currency - 15.2%. The average interest rate for positions in the tenge amounted to 20.4% of real terms, and for foreign currency - 16.4% of real terms.

Based on the analysis of deposits held by the capital branch of JSC “Kaspi Bank” in foreign currency, a total of 2,305 current deposits were obtained for JSC “Kaspi Bank” in 2010. The real interest rate for deposits of physical and legal entities is of great importance: deposits before deposits in national and foreign currencies - 0%, for line deposits in national currencies - 12.29%, in US dollars - 8.01% and euros - 5 .64 %.

In addition to credit and deposit operations in foreign currency, the Capital Branch also carries out operations with prepared foreign currency. The population's demand for foreign currency, especially dollars, is great. In connection with this, the ready-made foreign currency, which is rejected, is purchased by JSC “Kaspi Bank” on the interbank market. In 2010, the following foreign currencies were sold: USD – 56,800,823 US dollars; EUR – 2779986 euro; RUR – 29,563,608.52 Russian rubles. Purchased foreign currency: USD – 33,945,400 US dollars; EUR – 989459 euro; RUR - 28051163 Russian rubles. Purchased foreign currency on the interbank market: USD - 16,670,000 US dollars, EUR - 1,240,000 euros. Sold on the interbank market of ready-made foreign currencies: USD – 500,000 US dollars. As a result of the operation on the market of ready-made foreign currency, the filiia deducted income to the total amount of 70,794.0 thousand. tenge, vitrati became 33,808.0 thousand. tenge

The exchange rate robot carried out an analysis of the Bank's currency risk as of April 31, 2010, with which the Bank's assets are required to reflect the balance sheet of the currency range. The bank issued loans and advances in foreign currency. Due to the penny flows held by the client, the increase in the rates of foreign currencies in the Kazakh tenge can negatively affect the client's ability to repay loans, which, in turn, increases the amount of money The severity of the culpability of credits.

The bank bears the market risk associated with closed positions in capital, currency and mutual instruments that are subject to the risk of hidden and specific changes in the market. The Board of Directors sets limits based on the amount of money that is accepted and controls their addition on a cost-effective basis. However, this approach does not allow avoiding the creation of buffers, which will exceed the established limits when there are more changes in the market.

The investigation showed that it is necessary to develop a new approach before the formation of the necessary infrastructure of the financial market and the principles of mutual interaction between the banking sector and the economy, which allows banks to change their risks when operating their business. and activity at times of stagnation of fragmented propositions. With this method, this tool can be used to formulate the policies of banks and directly determine their final results of financial activity.

List of Wikorista Gerels

1.Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated 30 February 1995 No. 2155 About the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2.Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated 31 September 1995 No. 2444 About banks and banking activities in the Republic of Kazakhstan

3.Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated 24 June 1996 “On currency regulation”

."Regulations on the procedure for licensing activities related to foreign currency exchange rates" dated 24 April 1997 No. 130

.Bankivska on the right: Pidruchnik/Ed. Seytkasimova G.S. - Almaty: “Karzhi-Karazhat”, 1998.-576 p.

.Bankivska on the right: Pidruchnik / Ed. O.I. Lavrushina – M.: Finance and statistics, 2008 – 672 p.

.Banks and banking operations: Pidruchnik / Ed. E.F. Zhukova. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1998.-471 p.

.Walraven K.D. Managing the risks of a commercial bank. Washington/Institute for Economic Development of the Light Bank. – 1993.-77 p.

.Zhuirikov K.K. Market and business: risk insurance. – Almaty: Karzhi-Karazhat, 1997. –232 p.

.Iskakova Z.D., Abdilmanova Sh.R., Veselska N.R. The banking system and legal basis. - Karaganda, 1997. 56 p.

.Kazakhstan's Kaspi Bank is offering bonds worth 7.5 billion tenge, having received a syndicated position for $13 million. // Professional No. 2, 01/14/2009

.Kornilova L.P. Infusion of risks on the reliability of the bank (from the applications of banks from another region of the Republic of Kazakhstan) // Abstract of thesis. Cand. Ekon. Sci. - Almaty 1999

.Novikov I.A. Exchange of banking risks in Kazakhstan. Abstract of thesis. Ph.D. ekon. Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, 1999

.Novikov I.A. Current problems of bank risk management in Kazakhstan/collection “Turan University - 5 Rocks”, Almaty, 1997

.Novikov I.A. Changing the risks of the banking system in Kazakhstan, as an adaptation of the light supply // Asia - Economics of Life, No. 18, 1998

.Novikov I.A. International report on the management of bank accounts // Al-Pari No. 2, 1998

.Novikov I.A., Chumachenko B.P., Shalgimbayev G.M. Strategy for managing bank accounts. – Almaty: “Karzhi-karazhat”, 1998. -128 p.

.Ramazanov N. Vitrati credit boom. // Business week, Kazakhstan, # "justify">. Khamitov N.M., Kornilova N.M. The structure of banking risks and their impact on reliability // Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference “Kazakhstan at the turn of the 21st century: people, science, economy”. – Karaganda, 1999.

.Chirkova M. Banking risks in lending organizations and their regulation // Financial business. -1998, - No. 4.

.Margaret E. Osius, Bluehord X. Pugnem Bankivska on the right and financial risk management. - Washington: IEP World Bank, 1995. -287 p.

.#"justify">.http://www.kase.kz/

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Russian State Social University

Kursk Institute of Social Education RMSU

Faculty of Social Management and Economics

Department: Finance and credit

Course work

Disciplines: Money, credit, banks

On the topic: Problems of managing currency exchange rates

Enter

1. Understanding of currency risks

1.1 Value of the foreign exchange rizik

1.2 Types of foreign exchange risks

1.3 Officials who influence the exchange rate

1.4 Risk and foreign exchange transactions

2. Currency risk management

2.1 Stages of methods for managing currency exposures

2.2 Methods for reducing the currency exchange rate

2.3 Methods of insurance against currency risks

3. Problems of managing currency exchange rates

4. Analysis of currency risk management

Visnovok

List of Wikilists

Enter

When writing a coursework, there is little emphasis on the nature of the currency exchange rate, the reasons for its guilt, who is smart to the exchange rate. The objectives of the exchange rate are to identify ways to manage currency risks, as well as to address the problem of managing currency risks. p align="justify"> When writing this work, the author used primary, primary-methodical materials, scientific literature, statistical materials, and periodical publications.

Risk is a situational characteristic of the activity of any experimenter, including a bank, which reflects the insignificance of its result and the possible unpleasant consequences of failure. The risk is reflected in the likelihood of eliminating such unfavorable results as the loss of profits and the incurrence of surpluses due to non-payments for certain loans, the shortening of the resource base, the increase in payments for off-balance sheet transactions, etc. And at the same time, the lower the price of the price, the lower the ability to take away a high profit. Therefore, on the one hand, any operator tries to reduce the risk level to a minimum and chooses from many alternative solutions. Whenever the level of risk is minimal, on the other hand, it is necessary to choose the optimal level of risk and level of business activity and profitability. The risk increases because:

1. Problems arise in a very different way;

2. A new structure has been put in place, which does not correspond to the previous justice of the bank (which is especially important in our minds, where the institution of commercial banks is no longer beginning to develop;

3. Care is not possible to make necessary and terminological entries that can lead to financial gains (increasing the ability to withdraw the necessary and/or additional income);

4. The bank’s normal operating procedure and the lack of thoroughness of the legislation require the adoption of the most optimal approaches for a specific situation.

Almost all types of banking operations are subject to risk.

Analyzing the risks of commercial banks in Russia at the stage requiring insurance:

5. The crisis of the economy of a protracted transition period, which is reflected in the decline of production, the financial instability of wealthy organizations, and the poverty of low government bonds;

6. The instability of the political formation;

7. Incompleteness of the formation of the banking system;

8. The lack of clarity and inadequacy of certain basic legislative acts, the inconsistency between the legal framework and the actual situation;

9. Inflation, which should be changed from hyperinflation, etc.

These conditions make significant changes to the totality of banking risks and the methods of their investigation that arise. However, this does not exclude the presence of underlying problems due to the emergence of risks and trends in the dynamics of their level.

Risks arise in connection with the flow of financial flows and appear on the markets of financial resources, especially in terms of capital and currency. Credit, commercial, investment risk.

1. Understanding the currency exchange rate

1.1 Value of the foreign exchange rizik

Currency markets are part of the commercial markets that are available to participants in international economic transactions.

Foreign exchange rizik is the price of expenses when buying and selling foreign currencies at different rates.

The foreign exchange risk, or the risk of exchange rate losses, due to the internalization of the banking operations market, the creation of transnational (indigenous) enterprises and banking institutions and the diversification of their activities. The possibility of spending pennies on the result of changing exchange rates.

In this case, the change in exchange rates at a one-to-one ratio is determined by numerical factors, for example: the connection with changes in the internal value of currencies, the constant flow of penny flows from one country to another, speculation too bad. currencies of residents and non-residents. Confidence in a currency is a complex multi-factor criterion that consists of many indicators, for example: indicator of confidence in the political regime, the level of the country's openness, liberalization of the economy and the exchange rate regime, the export-import balance of the country These are the basic macroeconomic indicators and believe investors in the stability of the region’s development in the future.

Currency risks are the risk of foreign exchange losses that, due to changes in the exchange rate of foreign currency and national currency, during the time of foreign trade, credit, and foreign exchange transactions on stock and commodity exchanges for the evidence of a hidden currency position. For exporters and importers, the currency risk arises when the foreign currency price is foreign to them. The exporter recognizes the surplus at a reduced price rate in relation to his national currency during the period between the concluded contract and the current payment for it. For the importer, the surplus is to blame for the protracted exchange rate.

In both cases, the equivalents in non-rational currencies will rise in the opposite direction from the amount for which the exporter-importer was insured at the time of signing the contract. The foreign exchange risk is similar to borrowers and creditors, if the loan or position is denominated in a foreign currency for them, including government organizations and banks. The foreign exchange rate is affected by the official foreign exchange reserves of the country.

In the minds of pre-monopoly capitalism, under the gold standard, currency risks were minimal and there was no small influx on international economic exchanges due to the fact that exchange rates were clearly stable and did not succumb to frequent changes. Since monopolistic capitalism has subsided, the global crisis of capitalism has subsided, the currency sector has been strengthened, and currency risks have strengthened. In the minds of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the regime of fixed parities and exchange rates was understood as periodic official devaluations and revaluations. With the transition to a regime of floating exchange rates, exchange rates grew. Currency risks will complicate international trade and credit reports.

1.2 Types of exchange rates

Prote, in fact, is firmly in favor of a different type of exchange rate regime, most likely a floating rate. Today, in world practice there are a number of types of exchange rate regimes, depending on the specifics of the skin of a particular region.

With common wisdom, the type of monetary system can be mentally determined by the following characteristics:

1). The type of country with a closed market has the following characteristics: a trend towards a closed economy and economic information, a strict exchange rate for investors and export-import operations, an important sovereign form of the economy, a directive form of a government regime at the exchange rate. The exchange rate of the currency of such a country is not transferable, investors and importers are expected to avoid the unique interests of such a currency; real differences in the turnover of goods exist in the currencies of third countries. The market for such currencies is very narrow (or else it doesn’t matter).

Macroeconomic indicators do not influence the exchange rate of such currencies on the global market.

2). Regions with priority to the fixed exchange rate for significant economic potential. Consider the exchange rates of such extremely rigidly fixed currencies in relation to the “authoritarian” currency, which is also suitable for current export-import transactions and investments. Macroeconomic indicators are expected not to inflate or even weakly inflate the exchange rate of the national currency of such countries.

1. V.F. Garbuzov “Financial Credit Dictionary” - Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 1984.

3). It is also clear that there are a large number of countries due to an equally strong, but not stable, economy, the exchange rate of such countries is important to predict, and may be due to various factors: political instability, untransferred economic policy in the order, international non-competitiveness, strong directness of the economy, inflationary financing of the government budget deficit, insufficiency the level of foreign exchange reserves, tightening and tightening from microeconomic indicators. Investing in such currencies entails the risk of entry and importation of a strong victorious currency of third countries in the flow of goods with such countries. Macroeconomic indicators in such countries influence the exchange rate of the national currency, but they can also be individually streamed due to political motives.

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4). The countries have a stable economy, which is consistent with the priority of free floating of the national currency. The most important characteristic of such countries: the market economy, economic prosperity, the transfer of politics to the government, strict control of the penny stock, high-income rates and inflation of the country. The freedom of floating of such currencies has been declared, however, in some cases it is associated with crude methods of regulating the exchange rate - with interventions, interstate regulative agreements for the floating of exchange rates, and political pressure.

Investments in these currencies are less risky; export-import operations depend on the different currencies themselves. The exchange rate sensitively reacts to changes in macroeconomic indicators of the economies of the countries.

Macroeconomic and political officials are starting to react even more strongly to the 3rd and 4th type of currency. In this case, many patterns can emerge that flow into the course of the long-term and short-term perspective.

For example, in the long-term perspective, when analyzing the change in exchange rates, such officials as the level of GDP, the rate of inflation, the balance of payments and trade balance, the level of unemployment, the level of the sovereign trade, economic prospects for development, level of political and social stability, etc.

1.3 Officials who influence the exchange rate

At the same time, of all the factors that influence the exchange rate in the long term, economists see two main ones.

The first rate of inflation, guarded by the law of which and those that in the country, at a higher rate of inflation, the rate of the national currency decreases in one hundred currencies of the country at a lower rate of inflation. Thus, the exchange rates of countries with high rates of inflation, such as, for example, Great Britain, Italy, France, the USA and Canada, decreased, as well as the exchange rates of countries with low rates of inflation, such as, for example, Japan, Belgium, the Netherlands, FRN and Switzerland – were moving forward. This is a long-term trend in the dynamics of exchange rates and prices at a time interval of about two dozen years.

Sharp fluctuations in exchange rates may be due to reasons ranging from economic and political to purely speculative. The market sensitively reacts to all changes in economic indicators, expert forecasts, political crises and political sensitivities, victorious and the best incentive for the beginning of the speculative game, which promises a huge income for speculators.

In addition, it is necessary to say that not only countries are subject to changes that are similar to the risk of the important forecasted fluctuations of their currencies, but there are also problems with countries that are also connected with crisis countries, and may They have significant economic and political connections.

1.4 Risk and foreign exchange transactions

The foreign exchange market has always been characterized by its instability and lack of transferability. This is explained by the rapid reaction of currency market participants to political and economic changes in the world, and may also be significantly related to speculation.

Currency rizik is the price of expenses caused by unpleasant changes in the exchange rates of foreign currencies during the course of transactions from purchase and sale. Vin is to blame only for the obviousness of his hidden position. Currency transactions may be divided into “cash” and “terms”. The cash market requires payment to be made within two business days from the day the contract was concluded, which is why the unconventional requirement is less certain. Before such pleasures lie: right SWAP, overnight. The terms include: forward, swap, futures, options.

The risk of non-payment for foreign exchange transactions depends on the creditworthiness of the investor and the terms of the agreement. What is greater about this term is the greater the flexibility of changing the exchange rate and not paying.

The term instruments are accepted by bank clients as the main methods of insurance (hedging) of their currency (or financial) risks. Banks are interested in stocking these tools as services to clients. Nowadays, the risk of term transactions becomes serious and the bank, in its turn, has to insure the agreement with the client term terms.

The terms include forward transactions, SWAPs, options, futures.

1). Forward.

A forward exchange rate is called such an exchange rate when the exchange rate is set at the current rate, and the exchange of currencies is expected at the future.

Characteristics:

1. Currency exchange (distribution) will be carried out no earlier than 2 business days after the conclusion of the contract;

2. The foreign exchange rate is also fixed at the time of settlement;

3. The payment term is fixed in the contract;

4. There is no loss of liquidity until payment is due.

Since there is a real possibility that the currency market will be blamed for the future, it will be covered by forward favor.

The bank opens a forward position whenever a client sells or buys foreign currency forward. With the exchange of currencies on Mayday, a fixed date is fixed, and it means that the bank itself sells and buys foreign currency forward using the method of withdrawing profits. However, there is a risk of price changes that can lead to the bank being overrun.

A SWAP means the exchange of one currency into another for the next period. A combination of a cash operation - SPOT and a term - forward. Resentments settle down instantly with one and the same partner.

SWAP is used as a way of excluding the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and also as a way of excluding the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

3). Option operations

An option is an agreement between the buyer and the seller, which gives the buyer the right - but not the obligation - to buy currency from the seller of the option or to sell it.

The option is one of the options for full coverage of currency risks. You can also use it as insurance against unfavorable crashes on the course. Compared to a forward, the option provides the greatest protection from possible risks, so that the buyer of the option deprives himself of the right to choose either a valid or invalid option.

4). F'yuchersi

Futures contracts are settled on special exchanges and, unlike a forward contract, the futures do not transmit actual purchases/sales of currency. The futures position is subject to contract agreements. The risk of futures contracts is minimized due to the possibility of covering the liability for the first futures contract by the way of the current strategic turnaround.

The essence of the main methods of spot and term insurance is to stop foreign exchange transactions before there is an unpleasant change in the exchange rate, or to compensate for the surplus from such changes for the exchange rate In particular, with currency, the rate of which changes directly with each other.

Currency accounts can be structured like this:

A) credit rizik - rizik, due to the inability of both the client and the counter partner to pay for their debts;

b) conversion rizik - the rizik of currency exchange rates directly related to specific transactions.

2. Currency risk management

2.1 Stages of methods for managing the foreign exchange risk

The transformation and identification of risks today is the first step in risk management and control in the banking sector. Bankers are likely to view risk management as a logical follow-up to raising a problem to its zenith. The key stages of the risk management process in the banking sector are as follows:

Identification and sensitivity of the bank to the risk. Care must be taken into account which risk factors are unsafe for various species in the bank, as well as how to change the magnitude and stage of these risks.

An overview of the operational policy of the skin and the everyday implementation of this policy in life to determine whether the skin is adequately covered from risk factors. Care can be taken to determine the necessary changes in daily activities and strategic settings to combat the main and most serious risk factors for skin diseases.

Analysis of the results of bank entries, which are carried out in the field of risk management, and the changes that result from them, for short-term and long-term bank plans. The bank's unfavorable attitude is likely to be indicative of the bank's response to various officials' efforts to achieve its goals. Is it necessary to change the plan in order to reflect the new situation that has developed for the bank in the eyes of the economy?

Analysis of the results of inputs and decisions in the field of risk management during and after the end of the skin transition period. The bank should know how well it recognized the factors of potential risk and neutralized them from the point of view of the goals set for the bank’s short-term and long-term plans.

Currency accounts may be managed by banks using different methods. The first step is to manage foreign exchange risks in the middle of the bank's structure and establish limits on foreign exchange transactions. So, for example, these types of limits are even wider:

Limits on foreign powers (the maximum possible amounts are established for day-to-day transactions with clients and counter-partners from each specific country).

Limits on transactions with counter-partners and clients (the maximum possible amount for a transaction per each counter-partner, client or type of client is established).

Instrument limit (established between instruments and currencies that are traded, with a designated list of possible currencies and trading instruments before trading).

Setting limits for each day and each dealer (this sets the size of the maximum possible open position of foreign currencies that are traded, which may be carried over to the next business day for each particular dealer and each particular instrument).

Crash limit (the maximum possible size of the CURGE is set after reaching all the open positions that must be closed with the CURGE). In some banks, such a limit is set for every business day or for a period of time (ie 1 month), in some banks it is divided into certain types of instruments, and in some banks it can also be set for certain dealers.

In addition to the limits of social practice, there are the following

currency risk methods:

mutual exchange of purchase and sale of currency for an asset and a liability, so called the “matching” method, whereby for additional recovery of the currency from the value of its input, the bank is able to infuse its size and therefore into its own accounts;

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Subject to the “netting” method, which is used to reduce the maximum number of foreign exchange assets through their aggregation. With this method, banks create divisions that coordinate the receipt of applications for the purchase and sale of foreign currency;

adding additional information by adding information products from specialized companies in real time that display exchange rates and other information;

detailed analysis and analysis of foreign exchange markets on a daily basis. 1

2.2 Methods for reducing the currency exchange rate

The level of the currency exchange rate can be reduced using two methods:

correct choice of currency price;

regulation of foreign exchange positions with contracts.

Method for choosing the correct currency price

An external economic contract is subject to the established price in the contract in such currency as the change in exchange rate is suitable for that organization. For an exporter, such a currency will be a “strong” currency, that is. the rate that moves over the term of the contract. For an importer, a “weak” currency is visible, the exchange rate of which decreases. It should be remembered, however, that the forecast for the Russian exchange rate is as soon as possible with the exchange rate exceeding 70%. In addition, before the end of the contract, it is not always possible to choose a currency, the interests of the partners in this relationship may be prolonged, and, therefore, choosing a favorable currency, it will be necessary to compromise on some other point of the contract (price, credit, security etc.) ), but this is not always possible and feasible.

Method of adjusting the currency position For foreign economic contracts that are being negotiated, we can compete with government entities that create a large number of foreign economic benefits with partners from various powers. Instead of this method, ensuring a balanced structure of the penny money is achieved through the need to establish contracts, which can be achieved in two ways:

When contracts for export and import are signed overnight, traces should be made so that the contracts are in the same currency and the terms of payment are approximately the same, in which case the loss of the currency exchange rate from exports is compensated by a profit. about import and how.

Since the subject of government specializes in only one aspect of external economic activity, then complete diversification of the currency structure is necessary. arrangement of contracts for various currencies, which looms up to the last change in rates.

2.3 Methods of insurance against currency risks

There are two methods of insuring against currency risks:

Currency controls;

Forward operations.

Currency restrictions are specifically included in the text of the agreement, which means that the payment amount will be changed in the same proportion as the exchange rate of the payment will be changed in relation to the security currency.

Currency guards link the size of due payments with changes in foreign exchange and commodity markets. This is the most extensive method of insurance against currency risks.

There are different types of currencies: indirect, direct, multi-currency.

Indirect currency not guarded stagnate in these situations, when the price of the product is fixed in one of the largest international currencies (US dollar, Japanese yen), and the payment is transferred in another penny unit, that is, the national National currency. The text of such a notice could be something like this: “Price is in US dollars, payment is in Japanese yen. If the dollar exchange rate before the day before payment changes at the same rate as the exchange rate on the day the contract is concluded, then both the price of the product and the amount of payment will change.”

Straight currency not secured It becomes stagnant if the currency of the payment is saved, but the amount of the payment specified in the contract remains due to a change in the exchange rate of the payment currency, which is completely different from a more stable currency, the so-called security currency. Direct currency control directly saves the purchasing power of currency for a large amount of money.

The formula for such a restriction could be something like this: “The price of the product and payment is in US dollars. “If on the day of payment the exchange rate to the Japanese yen on the foreign exchange market in New York is lower than the rate on the day the contract is made, then the price of the goods and the amount of payment in dollars will likely move up.”

Multi-currency security- this security is based on the correction of the payment amount in proportion to the change in the exchange rate of the payment currency, not just one, but to a specially selected set of currencies (currency box), the rate of which is insured as its average value according to the standard method, for example , based on the arithmetic mean a variety of changes in the exchange rate of the skin of the “cat” currencies from the output level or from the adjustment of the change in the diversified arithmetic mean of the rate of the intended set of currencies.

The essence of forward operations in the insurance of foreign exchange risks is the same. Forward currency exchange - sales or purchases of the current amount of currency at an interval between the hours of exchange and exchange rates according to the exchange rate of the day of exchange. In this case, the forward rate is insured on the basis of the spot rate plus net income or net expenses for the capital:

Currency purchased spot and deposited before the payment term;

Currency sold on spot and deposited by the counterparty prior to the payment term.

Net income and net expenses are expressed through “Pipsies” and are added or subtracted from the spot rate.

In times of forward operations, the exporter, when

Having signed the contract, having approximately determined the payment schedule, his bank agrees to transfer the amount of future payments in foreign currency at the predetermined rate. The value of exports and those that mean revenue from the national currency before the withdrawal of payment sets the price of the contract. The bank that arranges the forward agreement is required to deliver on the date stipulated in the contract the equivalent of the national currency at the previously determined rate, regardless of the actual change in the exchange rate to the national currency on that date. The enterprise must ensure the availability of currency to the bank or submit an authorization for the transfer of currency beyond the border (depending on the authority of the party that exports or imports).

The importer, however, then buys foreign currency from the bank with the help of a forward contract, as a result of the exchange rate of the currency being transferred to the payment fixed in the contract.

Similarly, a foreign investor can insure the risk associated with a possible depreciation of the currency exchange rate - by investing, through the sale of a foreign term to the bank, thereby saving the bank's assets for expenses.

In this way, the client insured his risks. Rizik caught on himself. From this point on the risk is accepted, it is necessary for the bank itself to hedge. Therefore, the bank, as a rule, on the same day for the same amount and in the same currency, buys another forward deal with another bank or a futures deal on a specialized exchange.

Well, of course, to exchange currency risks, hedging will be introduced.

Hedging is a process of changing the risk of potential costs. The firm can be praised for its decision to hedge all risks, hedge nothing, or hedge everything selectively. You can also speculate if you are aware of it.

The presence of hedging may be due to two reasons. First of all, the company may not be aware of the risks or the possibility of changing these risks. Otherwise, you may expect that exchange rates and interest rates will no longer remain unchanged or will change to their value. As a result, the company is speculative: if its calculations are correct, it wins, if it does not recognize the run-ins.

Hedging all risks is the only way to eliminate them completely. However, financial directors of companies give preference to selective hedging. If they respect that exchange rates or interest rates change unfavorably for them, then they will hedge the rizik, and if the collapse will be on their backside, they will deprive the rizik is invincible. This is essentially speculation. It is important to respect that professional forecasters should rely on their estimates, and the forecasters of financial branches of companies, who are “amateurs,” will continue to believe in their gift of transfer, which allows Let us make an accurate forecast.

One of the disadvantages of hedging (that is, changing all risks) is to add up to the total cost of commissions and option premiums. Vibration hedging can be one of the ways to reduce waste costs. Another way is to insure risks after the rates and rates have changed to a constant level. It is important to note that the company can withstand unfavorable changes, but if it reaches the permissible limit, the position of the trail is completely hedged to avoid further excesses. This approach allows you to eliminate costs for risk insurance in situations where exchange rates and multi-hundred rates are not stable or change favorably.

A contract that serves to insure against the risks of changes in price exchange rates is called a hedge.

The government's object that performs hedging is called a hedger.

There are two hedging operations:

hedging for advancement;

hedging for decline.

Hedgevania for advancement or hedging with a purchase,

This is an exchange operation involving the purchase of term contracts: forward options. Hedges are used during downturns if it is necessary to insure against a possible movement in exchange rates in the future. It allows you to set the purchase price (or exchange rate) much earlier than the amount of currency you receive.

Let’s say that after 3 months the exchange rate will increase, and the currency itself will be needed after 3 months. To compensate for the costs of the transferred increase in the exchange rate, it is necessary to buy at the current price a forward contract or an option related to this currency, and sell it after 3 months at the moment when it is purchased currency. Since the exchange rate and the terms of the contract associated with it change proportionally in one direction, then purchases before the contract can be sold at a higher price than the average price, as the exchange rate increases. In this way, a hedger who hedges against movements insures himself against a possible movement in the future exchange rate.

Hedge on the decline Or hedging by sale is an exchange operation involving the sale of term contracts. The hedger, using a decline hedge, transfers the possibility of future currency sales and, by selling forward contracts and options on the exchange, insures itself against a possible decrease in the currency exchange rate of the future.

Let us assume that the exchange rate will decline after three months, and the currency will need to be sold after three months. To compensate for transfer costs due to a decrease in the exchange rate, the hedger sells a term contract today at a high price, and when selling a currency after 3 months, when the exchange rate has fallen, he buys the same term contract at the exchange rate that has fallen (maybe now) ilki g). Thus, a downside hedge is set up in these situations if the currency needs to be sold later.

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The hedger aims to reduce the risk of invaluability of currency exchange rates on the market, through the additional purchase and sale of term contracts. This makes it possible to fix the exchange rate and earn income and spend more money. In what case, the connection with the hedges is unknown. Let's take it away from speculators, so market participants will walk away from the insurance risks.

Hedging takes place in front of the futures market. Hedger come to the market to sell his piece of land to the rizik. The speculator takes the risk on himself, determined to take away the profits.

Speculation over the market of term contracts plays a great role. Taking advantage of the risk of reducing profits during the price difference, the role of a price stabilizer will be established.

Speculators should not bother with the transaction or acceptance of a specific type of product (currency). The market attracts them with the current price fluctuations. That's why currency positions stink. The size of the lot at the time of placing futures contracts is small, and therefore the speculator has great freedom of maneuver. However, this freedom causes rizik.

An important point is also that the speculator increases the profit before the operation on just one market. Since a hedger can compensate for his losses on the futures market with a profit in the market of real goods, then the speculator can prepare for possible runs in the futures market.

When purchasing term contracts on the exchange, the speculator makes a guarantee deposit, which determines the value of the risk.

If the exchange rate has decreased, the speculator who bought the contract earlier spends an amount equal to the guarantee deposit. As the exchange rate changes, the speculator turns over the amount that is equal to the guarantee deposit, and takes additional income from the difference in the exchange rates of the purchased contract.

Risks associated with the exchange of currencies may be subject to additional pricing policies, which include changes in both the level of prices that are quoted and the currencies in which the price is expressed. In the same way, the terms of withdrawal and payment of pennies can be added to the rizik. In addition to the above-described actions, in order to reduce the operating foreign exchange risk, the company is also actively pursuing an offensive approach: rakhunok - the invoice for the purchase of goods is registered in the currency in which payment for import was made.

However, these options are not always convenient for the buyer, but are actually impossible.

Specific hedging methods include:

forward foreign exchange transactions;

currency futures;

currency options;

SWAP operations;

structural balancing of assets and liabilities of accounts payable and receivable;

change of payment term;

lending and investment in foreign currency;

restructuring of foreign exchange debt;

parallel positions;

discounting in foreign currency;

vikoristannya "currency cat";

self-insurance;

Let's take a look at the report on the methods of currency hedging and practice. The traditional and most widespread type of hedging of foreign exchange transactions is terminology (forward).

One type of term contract is foreign exchange futures, which are traded on the largest specialized exchanges.

Currency futures first began to stagnate in 1972 on the Chikaz currency market. Currency futures are a term on the stock exchange that involve the purchase and sale of a foreign currency at the exchange rate fixed at the time of settlement through the exchange term. The significance of foreign exchange futures in a forward operation is that:

Futures – trading in standard contracts.

The obov'yazkova mental future is a guarantee deposit.

Distributions between counterparties are carried out through the clearing house at the foreign exchange exchange, which acts as intermediaries between the parties and is also a guarantor of satisfaction.

The advantage of a futures contract over a forward contract is its high liquidity and stable quotation on the foreign exchange exchange. In addition to futures, exporters may be able to hedge their operations.

Purchasing or selling foreign exchange futures allows you to avoid potential expenses that result from fluctuating exchange rates for the benefit of your clients.

Let spot futures on the interbank market run for 12 months per river. When opening positions with clients (forwards, options, swaps), banks are required to hedge on the exchange-traded futures market.

On the rink of the currency f'yucherys, hedger - that kupa -bon contract - to draw out the guarantee, at once, the course of the course of the іnozema currency on the rink of the spot vin, buy a vigid course, the background with a fuel -shame. Thus, the spot gains are compensated by the hedger with profits on the futures foreign exchange market for the movement of the foreign currency exchange rate and the turnover. There is also one unwritten pattern to note - the exchange rate above the spot market always tends to converge with the rate of the futures market due to the proximity to the term of the futures contract.

Another different type of futures term is a SWAP term. A SWAP term means the exchange of one currency for another at the same time and is a combination of a ready spot term and a forward term. The grievances are settled instantly with this same partner at the rates fixed in advance. SWAP is considered as excluding the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates.

If SWAPs are useful for banks, if they create uncovered currency positions, the bank's obligations on foreign currency are avoided. The purposes of the SWAP are:

1. Procurement of necessary currency for international markets;

2. current policy of diversification of foreign exchange reserves;

3.Trimming of excess deposits on the flow racks;

4. Satisfaction of the client’s consumption in foreign currency and foreign currency.

Central banks are particularly active in promoting swaps. They use them to temporarily bolster their foreign exchange reserves during currency crises and conduct currency interventions.

Currency option – agreement between the buyer of the option and the seller of currencies, which gives the buyer the right to buy or sell at the current rate an amount of currency within the agreed hour for the city, which the seller pays.

Currency options will become stagnant, since the buyer of the option cannot insure himself against losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of the currency directly. Thus, the option contract is binding for the seller and not binding for the buyer.

The particularity of an option as an insurance area is the risk of the seller of the option, which results from the transfer to a new currency risk of the exporter or investor. By incorrectly pricing the option rate, the seller runs the risk of finding out that he has lost the premium that he has lost. Therefore, the seller of the option must first lower its rate and increase the premium, which may be unpleasant for the buyer. The advantage of hedging for an additional option is manifested in the event of an unfavorable change in the exchange rate. Not much will be spent on paying the option premium.

To insure currency, interest and investment risks, the remaining time is also to use low new financial instruments: financial futures and financial options (options with price papers), interest rates, issue of valuable papers with additional insurance funds and so on. These insurance methods allow exporters and investors, burdened by competitive struggle in the markets, to transfer currency, credit and interest risks to banks for the benefit of the wine city, in order to bear these types of risks as one of the forms of profit deduction. Transactions with new financial instruments, as a rule, are concentrated at high-level financial centers through those whose legislation in low countries streams their stagnation. These methods of risk insurance today are developing dynamically and there are persistent growth trends looming. The use of new terms for insuring the risks of external economic activity allows clients to more accurately assess the remaining insurance coverage.

Hedging behind an additional forward operation involves mutual obligations of the parties to carry out currency conversion at a fixed rate on a predetermined date. The term and forward contact require two parties (seller and buyer). The seller of crops will sell, and the buyer of crops will buy a lot of currency at the established rate at the value of the day. The advantage of a forward operation is manifested in the presence of forward costs and protection from unpleasant changes in the exchange rate. There are few potential expenses associated with the risk of wasted benefits. Forward operations, as a way of insuring against currency risks, will be frozen and under the hour of conducting multi-hundredth arbitrage with forward prices.

Vіdsotkovyj arbitration– This means that the conversion (exchange) and depository operations with currency are created to remove income from the additional difference in the multi-rate rate from different currencies. Commercial arbitration takes two forms:

without forward coverage

with forward coverage

– the purchase of currency at the current rate with further placement into the deposit and the reverse conversion at the current rate after the end of the deposit term. This form of multi-unit arbitrage is associated with the currency risk.

High-quality arbitrage based on forward coverage– the price of purchasing currency at the current rate, placing it in a term deposit and immediately selling at the forward rate. This form of multi-unit arbitrage is not heavier than currency risks.

Structural balancing aims to maintain such a structure of assets and liabilities in order to allow surpluses due to changes in the exchange rate by profits, which will be deducted from other positions of the bank. In this case, a method is used to show the consistency of currency levels, which represent income and expenses. In other words, immediately, when setting up a contract that transfers the withdrawal or payment of foreign currency, the business or bank is responsible for refusing to return the currency that will help it close or often already clearly “open” currency positions ії (the currency position is open – this division is possible and tell the bank) in the process of dealing with foreign currency).

Changing the payment line involves manipulating the terms of the current market, which is subject to sudden changes in the exchange rates of the price or payment currency. The most common methods of such tactics include: advance payment for goods and services (in case of an increased exchange rate and payment), and, for example, delay in payment (in case of an increased exchange rate), accelerated or increased repayment triations of profits, repayment of the principal amount of loans and payments of capital and dividends . Regulation of foreign currency exchange terms, conversion of revenues to national currency, etc.

Parallel positions are mutual lending from the national currency by enterprises and banks issued in different countries. Offenses appear on the same term. In essence, this kind of position is viewed as a spot trade with the purchase of currency for the spot market and an overnight forward sale, but the hedging period itself may be more difficult than is possible in the forward market.

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Discounting of payment bills in foreign currency, a different type of discount on bills of exchange, and transfer of the right to borrow in foreign currency in lieu of the bank's unpaid payment of a separate amount in national currency. foreign (or other foreign) currency. Such operations are called forfetuvanya. In addition to factoring operations, the bank (at times) issues bills of exchange from the amount and the other term, taking in all commercial risks (including the risk of insolvency) without the right to negotiate (recourse) these bills for any amount. Nick. The significance of the traditional form is that the forfeiting is established due to the hour of setting up a large sum with a triple installment payment (up to 5 rubles) and transferring a guarantee (avail) of the bank.

A currency box is a set of currencies, taken in certain proportions. If such a cat is chosen using the method of hedging, then currencies are selected, the rates of which are supposed to “float” in the same directions, the mutually important legacy of its “floating”, and the overall return of the “cat” is stable. Yu.

Self-insurance is being promoted by enterprises and banks independently and in parallel with other hedging methods described above. The point is that the possible damage caused by changes in the exchange rate is later included in the price (as market conditions allow it to be earned) and is used to establish an insurance fund.

In industrialized countries, specialized expert firms provide professional advice to investors and exporters. Proceeding with my recommendations for optimal hedging of investments, it is possible in foreign currencies (if, in such a term, such currencies). In addition, the banks themselves, with a staff of analysts and exchange rate forecasts, are actively trying to promote services from comprehensive management of client risks. The hedging process significantly affects the supply and position on the market of foreign exchange terms, putting pressure on the rates of new types of currencies, especially during the period of important predicted trends in the development of their rates.

Another method of managing the currency risk is to analyze the dynamics of exchange rates. Such analysis is both fundamental and technical.

Fundamental analysis of the dynamics of currency exchange rates based on the proposition that the main changes in exchange rates are determined by macroeconomic factors in the development of the economies of the currency issuers. analysts. What to insure yourself before the fundamentalists. It is important to monitor on a regular basis basic indicators of the macroeconomic development of the surrounding countries and predict the rise of exchange rates in the long term.

Macroeconomic factors can only affect 3-4 types of currency. To forecast current exchange rates, changes in basic indicators and exchange rates of foreign currencies are analyzed.

A technical analysis of the reasons for the fact that macroeconomic indicators in the short-term and mid-term perspective are little influenced by the movements of exchange rates. However, exchange rates can only be predicted with reasonable accuracy using an additional method of analysis, which is based on a mathematical system.

Technical analysis follows the trend of changing exchange rates and provides signals for buying and selling.

3. Problems of managing currency exchange rates

A bank that conducts transactions with foreign currency is associated with two risks:

The influx of an unfavorable collapse in exchange rates and the increase in rates on the open position.

Bankruptcy of the other party before that, as the spot liability, forward or deposit liability was laid down.

A look at the costs incurred by a number of great banks shows that these risks can be classified under two headings:

Operations that need to be completed in full view of the renewed control of the main bank.

Operations that are concluded by dealers in transactions with foreign currency without or falling behind the bank.

Above those, in cases where there were obviously large speculative positions. There was obviously a significant increase in business obligations.

Since, as a general obligation to business, which bank can operate on the international market depends on its reputation, stature, and therefore its ability to pay, it is practically impossible for other market participants to establish on what basis operations of dubious standards are based.

Similarly, given how easily large speculative positions can be created in a relatively short period of time, without raising suspicion, it would be wrong to take into account the size of individual transactions as an indicator of the extreme amount stі delіngovykh lands.

These aspects of dealing, which can be shown to the other parties for the benefit of either the correspondent bank, which can be involved in dealing transactions, without losing their importance, can be recognized in the following way:

Raptov's trade obligations are aligned with those that are essential for a given bank or division, however, it is necessary to note that when it comes to great banks, sophisticated companies, there may be doubtful advance;

It is necessary to increase the bank's turnover with its correspondent banks for clearing transactions, especially the private provision of overdrafts. The remaining turnover through clearing accounts yields a hidden amount for several reasons, such as by powerful forces that make it impossible to raise suspicions in other parties. Tse mozhe buti duzhe korisny vysnovok;

a change in the normal form of dealing. Open positions are only likely to become stuck when delivering currency behind a forward, but they can also get stuck when buying/selling currency on spot, which then delays the exchange day by day for a short period of time. Such operations lead to an increase in the number on the market, as well as an increase in the turnover of clearing accounts. The risk of expenses may disappear if the bank maintains a net position in terms of foreign exchange transactions. Although there is no purely open position here, since the hidden amount of purchases indicates the hidden amount of sales, and is a risk in terms of forward operations;

not removing confirmation for reasons, especially for forward transactions;

not withdrawing the necessary information about confirming the unpaid agreement;

It is important to keep track of the price, which is carefully set on the market, which does not correspond to the market price. In order to avoid the need for transactions with different banks, the dealer can place a bet with a large spread between the purchase price and the sale price. If another bank carries out operations especially for swaps, then it is better for the whole bank that faces the difficulties of carrying out its operations;

It is normal practice for the bank to set spot rates for SWAP transactions when the term of the forward contract expires and, when the term is extended, it will increase to the current market rate for SPOT to liquidate the contract, the term will end and set a new forward rate based on the adjusted spot rates.

4. Analysis of currency risk management

Changes in exchange rates can be favorable and bring profits to the company, or they can be unfavorable and generate profits. The financial manager of the company may come up with ideas about how to reconcile the long-term prospects of profits and earnings. This position is respected by the neutral: the company is tolerant to the risk. A neutral approach to the risk may be acceptable, since potential profits and earnings are clearly in line with the company’s turnover. joke around until you manage it. Riziku management includes:

using all possible methods to create unique ingredients that will lead to significant profits; control of the rizik, since there is no possibility of getting it out of the way, maximum change in the amount of possible additions; We are aware of the risk, but it will lead to an increase in its direction, which is a sign of a favorable exchange rate.

World practice has in its disposal a wide range of assets that help either to reduce the currency risk or to control it. Unfortunately, such methods of managing currency risks are most often not available to Russian participants in foreign economic activity. Let us briefly describe the main strategies that allow a financial manager to neutralize foreign exchange risks.

Strategies that can help minimize currency risks.

The “leads & lags” strategy, which gives freedom to choose the payment date, is most suitable for relationships between two companies that are closely linked to one another, since the obviousness of common goals helps to find a Another viable option is frost-freezing. However, the steady penny flow between such firms simply requires them to follow this strategy, since it makes it possible to accurately estimate the obligations of financial flows between firms at the same time but carry out platopromotion of the skin firm. This emphasizes the obviousness of common goals and clear consistency of action.

The most effective “leads & lags” strategy is used when the parent company has greater control over its subsidiaries and subsidiaries, and the stretching of payment lines can lead to a significant loss of financial I will become one of the participating companies in the agreement, and not unfortunately all the corporations. .

Obviously, since the interests of the leads & lags fit with the companies, since MNCs are not 100% responsible, then the decision of the shareholders will not be suitable for changes in their profits. What we are talking about is that the arrangement of such agreements between two independent companies requires comprehensive analytical analysis and the importance of additional assets to compensate for the surpluses of one of the parties.

MNCs widely use the “leads & lags” strategy, as this is one of the ways to reduce revenues. transfer of foreign currency values ​​across the border, bypassing national legislation. Essential for an effective growth strategy, the leads & lags are the ability of the parent company to develop technology that could share the profits and control investment flows from the most profitable subsidiaries. forms for MNEs in general.

The alternative strategy of “leads & lags” is not only a method of changing the currency exchange rate, but also for the uniqueness of taxes, it is often separated by power. The framework of such an exchange largely depends on the country’s foreign policy, so the country will approach this food with preferential treatment.

Sub-risk strategy An alternative strategy for managing currency risks between foreign companies that have long-term business ties is the so-called sub-risk technique.

The risk category is a mutual agreement between companies, laid down in the form of an agreement, in which the buyer and seller agree to bear the majority of the costs associated with fluctuations in exchange rates, regardless of how much the company actually knew about the costs.

Thus, since companies pay insurance on long-term mutually dependent contracts, and fluctuations in the foreign exchange market cannot significantly affect their financial system, then the appropriate strategy for the risks is compatible with greater trade turnover between companies, transfer of financial flows, etc.

As a matter of fact, we will look at this situation when an American company manufactures cars and imports some of the components from Japan. Risk after fate, fluctuations in the exchange rate lead to the point that one company takes profits for the partner's exchange rate, and if the fluctuations in the exchange rate become even more significant, then both sides can break the bonds. One solution to this problem for the American and Japanese companies would be for all purchases on the American side to be made in Japanese yen as long as the exchange rate is varied between 115 and 125 Japanese yen. n per US dollar. Depending on the exchange rate on this level, the American side will be prepared to bear possible currency risks. However, if the exchange rate falls below the established limit, the parties, according to the agreement, divide the surplus in full. So, for example, an American company is required to pay fees in the amount of 25 million Japanese yen for the birch. Since the spot rate on the date of payment in the warehouse is 110 Japanese yen per US dollar, then the Japanese yen becomes more expensive, then the spare parts for the American company that are purchased are increasing. Since this course is at a lower level, the Japanese company, in compliance with the agreement, will take part of the surplus. However, until the end of the market, the excess amount is taken, causing the exchange rate to fall below the specified limit. In accordance with the agreement, the American company will pay the following amount: Payment of parts of the American company in Japanese yen is calculated at an exchange rate of 112.50 Japanese yen per US dollar, then the Japanese side will accept to your partner 5,050 US dollars. With the spot rate on the date of payment being 110 Japanese yen per US dollar, the American company would have to pay 227.272 US dollars, otherwise, with an agreement on the sharing of risks between partners, the American side would actually pay only 222.22 2 US dollars, saving 5,050 US dollars. . Both parties, therefore, will have to bear expenses and make gains, since the fluctuation of the exchange rate goes beyond the understanding of the boundary, not only with the increased exchange rate of the Japanese yen, as in this example, but for its fall (as the spot rate in the warehouse is 130 Japanese yen). yen per US dollar) .The strategy in the area of ​​risks is being developed in order to mitigate the negative impact of changes in exchange rates on the financial sector of partners. Of course, the constant depreciation of one currency requires a frequent rethinking of the agreement on the division of the territory, but this is not necessary. In secular practice, agreements on the division of the kingdom already last for 50 years. They also existed under the Bretton Woods system. The most discussed methods can be compared to the methods of “natural hedging”. In this way, the distribution of risks is the most economical and effective. The benefits of this kind can be of great help to Russian companies that take part in international trade, since it is possible to insure themselves against currency risks cheaply and without having to pay for their services. wine market of futures, forwards, options, etc. .

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Reinvoicing centers

The re-invoicing center is a branch of MNCs that centrally deals with all currency risks that arise during international trading.

Let's take a look at the offensive butt. For example, a branch of an MNC, which produces goods, sells their branches, which is engaged in distribution, and sales are not carried out directly, but through an intermediary - a reinvoicing center.

In this way, the goods are initially sold to the re-invoicing center (in this case there are only a few documents, the goods are in the warehouse, so they remain there), and then the center resells the goods of the branch, which is engaged in distribution. Thus, the center is actually limited to document processing.

Structure of the revoicing center

2. On the basis of forward rates, the center determines the availability of the goods on the due date, allowing these subsidiaries to accurately recover their future expenses. Therefore, any distribution branch may be able to set firm prices for goods and protect themselves from the risk of being a client by confirming a previous offer to purchase goods at new prices. In this way, the distribution branch, in charge of the reinvoicing center, can concentrate entirely on marketing activities without being overwhelmed by problems associated with exchange rates.

3. The center is also involved in managing penny flows between branches, which allows all branches of the corporation to conduct transactions in excess of the national currency.

The presence of different direct flows of different currencies makes it possible to hedge only non-covering currency transactions.

The main drawback of the re-invoicing centers is the costs incurred by the corporation behind the replacement. In fact, another branch is being created with its own accounting, office and personnel. The center is obliged to provide information about the legal legislation of the skin, about those who need to pay taxes to understand the national peculiarities of transactions with foreign clients. At the end of the day, a reinvoicing center may turn out to be too expensive and, therefore, unnecessary.

Hedging of foreign exchange risks by the structure of foreign exchange flows

This strategy is important in order to cover the company's foreign exchange requirements. Thus, for any penny flow there may be a sharp flow in that very currency, which closes the company's open currency position.

This strategy is most often used by exporters. An American exporter who delivers goods to Canada can take out a loan on the Canadian capital market. This allows an American company to know in advance the amount of future payments and income, as well as to insure against currency risks. However, the implementation of this strategy is only possible in the minds of the stability and transferability of the financial market, if the risk of non-payments is practically non-existent. The list of variations of this hedging strategy may be endless. Thus, another alternative for the American company is to look for a potential supplier of components or materials from Canada. The third alternative is what is called the “mixing” of flows, in order to find the possibility of paying for the services of a third partner in Canadian dollars. For example, a Mexican firm hedges in Canadian dollars and pays for goods in Canadian currency, creating a hedging problem for both companies.

Currency swaps can be used as an instrument for insuring mid- and long-term foreign exchange risks, acting as an alternative to a forward contract since it cannot be traded.

Scheme of structure of domestic currency flows

One of the ways to hedge a swap is the method of fixing forward interest rates. An arrangement is made between the bank and the company, whereby the company deposits money in a foreign currency deposit, and the bank gives the company a position in the national currency. Every six months there is a mutual payment of monthly pensions, either fixed or insurance, based on the rates for interbank pensions plus fixed pensions. The company's expenses for the difference in hundreds of hundreds are considered as a fee for a swap operation. World practice knows a lot of ways to hedge currency risks using an additional swap operation.

In its simplest form, a swap transaction is organized with the participation of two firms engaged in international trading, and the swap dealer bank.

It is acceptable that a Japanese company is engaged in exports, and the addition of working capital is compensated by loans from Japanese banks. However, Japanese companies are more likely to borrow from US dollars in order to insure themselves against part of the currency risks, especially since the constant income from the currency allows the company to turn positions immediately without incurring conversion costs. It is acceptable that the Japanese company has little exposure to the American credit market, so access to apparently cheap loans is closed for it. In addition, it is difficult to operate in a market unknown to the company in a foreign country. One way to help a firm eliminate a dollar loan is through a currency swap transaction. The Japanese company can exchange its borgs in Japanese yen for the dollar borgs of the American company, which will result in the mental structure of the borg for the Japanese company, which is the most beautiful. Swap dealers handle most swap transactions using the “blind basis” principle; This means that the companies that exchanged the Borg may not know about the existence of one another. In this situation, for the participants, the risk of the partner not disclosing their cravings is minimal. Swap dealer, a profession of a loink of credit, not that prazu-praitsky partners, but th, the serviceable person is great Kilkіst Kliyntiv, the can of the nudalsh of the radio-rynovati ribs.

Practice of assessing currency risks.

Foreign companies have long appreciated the importance of assessing the size of the currency risk and managing it for the existence of a company. Any great foreign company will have a foreign exchange manager. Moreover, the management of the currency risk is part of the strategic line of the company, and in the organizational structure of the company there is a subdivision that systematically monitors the currency risk, which identifies it Stosov's standard procedures for successful adoption. The increase in currency instability of the financial system along with the introduction of floating exchange rates has made centralization of the management of the foreign exchange risk topical even at the level of corporations. Thus, the French automobile monopoly Peugeot has created a specialized company to manage the group’s currency risks and handle all its currency and penny transactions.

Russian enterprises, although there is not so much evidence of work on the foreign market, are only beginning to understand the importance of the image in the daily activities of the company and, therefore, Moreover, with the prospect of a collapse in the exchange rate, it is clear that the company’s competitiveness in the light market clearly matters new. approach the financial analysis of the company's activities, carefully adapting to international standards and rules of the game. Therefore, the financial management of any company will sooner or later be faced with the need to manage financial risks, including foreign exchange ones. A lot of Russian companies are already actively looking at the product line. By the way, in Russia, currency authorities do not pay due respect. This is connected with such conditions... First of all, the ranks of wealthy companies do not have sufficient knowledge to manage currency risks.

Setting up financial management is extremely low, there is no long-term planning for the management of funds. Insuring foreign exchange risks is only possible only after precise setting of goals.

The company can carry out hedging within the framework of a global financial strategy aimed at reducing costs and product productivity, analyzing future financial flows. Or, by the way, the company is trying to use various financial instruments to remove profits from fluctuations in exchange rates or simply to reduce possible expenses by changing the exchange rate.

At the first stage, the company faces the task of managing all types of currency risks, and at the other stage, it is possible to speculate on the difference in exchange rates and thereby protect itself from the influx of transaction risks. Otherwise, many companies insure themselves against currency risks without proper analysis of the situation, risk assessment of hedging alternatives, etc. The method of hedging for a financial manager is saving on the exchange rate, so that the company is included before speculative igor on the foreign exchange market. How costly the hedge itself and what risk of loss is often not seen in the speculative game. Thirdly, the futures and options market in the Russian Federation lacks excuses and, as a result, the instruments of its market cannot be widely used to hedge the currency risk. Fourthly, the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate in the Russian Federation depend on a number of factors that are practically impossible to transfer. Praise be to the order of the Russian Federation or the Central Bank can change the trend of the US dollar exchange rate falling.

Thus, for most Russian companies, the management of foreign exchange risks was either viewed superficially or completely ignored. Therefore, it is important to note those risks that arise at the initial stage of insuring foreign exchange risks.

Among them are apparently the following:

1. Assessment of the need for currency exchange rates.

The urgent need to manage foreign exchange risks, which are themselves insured against exchange rate losses, will continue to depend on the position of the company's financial services.

It is necessary to know all the arguments in order to clearly identify the extent to which the company will require hedging.

2. Significant number of problems related to the forecasted dynamics of the exchange rate.

Work with the currency risk begins with its identification and assessment (the extent to which the company's future financial flows change depending on the increase or decrease in the exchange rate). The transfer of such changes depends on the reliability of the forecast of exchange rate dynamics. The financial manager uses methods for forecasting changes in the exchange rate.

3. A look at the problem of setting hedging goals.

Setting goals to lie within the overall financial strategy of the company is the goal that the manager faces when making decisions about insurance. A company can trade foreign currency exposures as a method of long-term planning of its financial flows, or to capture the maximum profit (change in surplus) as a result of the transferred change in the exchange rate. The skin company maintains its own nutrition. Due to the need for proper financial management, the company's ability to adjust the exchange rate to its own advantage.

4. Choice of hedging methods: alignment of alternatives.

This type of hedging method is likely to be dangerous, since its implementation is associated with significant expenses that the company must make in order to protect itself from an unfavorable collapse in exchange rates. Such expenditures appear as real expenditures, and as savings through wasted opportunities. It is necessary to evaluate the future potential of these expenditures from insurance against the possibilities of their alternative investment. There is a need for an equalization of hedging alternatives, for example, an equalization of the risk of insurance through futures and forward contracts. By purchasing a futures contract for three months, the company pays as an insurance deposit a sum of pennies that could be purchased for commercial purposes or invested in sovereign bonds. The value of the forward contract is determined by the sum of the contract after three months. Obviously, in order to equalize these two alternatives, the manager must either bring the forward contract to maturity, or spend money on the purchase of futures before the deadline. Some hedging options allow you to fix the exchange rate at the current level, while others allow you to insure yourself against an unfavorable downturn in the exchange rate, but do not prevent the company from being able to withdraw income if it develops favorably. .

Development of an optimal hedging strategy.

Development of strategy is the final stage of analysis of currency risk and hedging methods. The manager has in front of him all the information necessary for advanced hedging. Knowing the characteristics of hedging, forecasting the dynamics of the exchange rate, alternatives to hedging, their risk and the transfer of inflows, which and alternatives to influence the financial results of the company, the financial manager develops an optimal insurance strategy. In financial management, when optimizing risk protection, it is understood that there is a way to achieve the target goal with minimal expenses. Who has the mystique of a manager.

Visnovok

The role of a commercial bank in transactions with foreign currency is between the client and the foreign currency market. In other words, the policy of protecting the economy may expand in operations on the foreign exchange market. Management must manage overnight risks, for example, in the form of short and long overnight positions, and in addition, set a daily position limit at the level that represents the normal values ​​necessary for the company. Entities of the operation. Banking business, in its simplest form, involves the placement of acceptable loans and investments and the receipt of deposits, but does not include any connection with the financial market.

The bank's management is responsible for developing a formal policy regarding overnight trading limits and others for dealing, as well as for the main clients who daily rely on the bank for their trading and investment operations. The Bank is responsible for its effective control system for the purpose of guarding against the activities of managing foreign exchange transactions. It is only depending on the specific situation of the problem that commercial banks analyze and manage all their risks.

In a strategic plan, the protection of the currency risk is closely related to the active pricing policy, types and grades of insurance, the level of reliability of insurance companies, both the bank itself and its counterparties and clients.

In addition, even all the great banks are trying to formulate a portfolio of their foreign exchange transactions, balancing assets and liabilities by types of currencies and terms. Moreover, all modern methods of managing currency risks are directly related to their diversification. For this purpose, as it was meant, the most widely used terms are currency transactions.

List of Wikilists

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Balabanov I.T. “Rizik management” - Moscow.: Finance and Statistics, 1999.

Gorbuzov V.F. "Financial and credit dictionary" - Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 1999.

Zhukov E.F. “Banks and banking operations” - Moscow: UNITI, 1997.

Krasavina L.M. “International monetary, credit and financial reports” - Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 1994.

Lavrushin O.I. “Banking on the right” - Moscow.: Banking and Exchange Scientific Advisory Center, 1999.

Peter S. Rose "Banking Management" - Moscow.: Prava LTD, 2001.

Sevruk V.T. “Banking Risiki” - Moscow: Right, 2001.

Stoyanova V.K. "Financial management theory and practice" - Moscow.: Perspective, 1996.