Forecast for Kudrin on the river. Kudrin is a screw of hope that checks the ruble for the economy. Tetyana Lisenko, economist at Russia Standard & Poor's

Former Minister of Finance Oleksiy Kudrin stated that an increase in taxes in 2016 is practically inevitable. In his words, the confidence in such a scenario is 99.9%. The order will encourage the collection of taxes to cover the budget deficit.

“This is very clear, based on the analysis of the actions and statements of the government, as well as the key policies of United Russia. If we do not interfere with defense expenditures and social expenditures, then the likelihood of an increase in donations, whether small or large, is 99.9 hundred,” Kudrin said on the sidelines of the economic forum in Davos.

As an alternative to increasing taxes, Kudrin himself advocated cutting subsidies to various sectors of the economy, in addition to infrastructure development and the rural state. In my opinion, many existing subsidies are ineffective.

“For the sake of the rural state, I would happily accept subsidies,” said Kudrin.

Naphtha prices to fall to $16 per barrel

Naphtha prices have not yet reached the bottom. “Today there are generally low factors, which contribute to lower prices. There will be a lower one, lower than we are today. The won can go up to 18 and go up to 16 (dollars per barrel), otherwise not long enough. In truth, this will be the lowest point,” Kudrin said, speaking at the VTB Capital business conference in Davos.

“There are a lot of conditions that help us survive this period - reserves, Russia's low bank - about 15.5% of GDP, Russia has a reserve of capital, we can borrow and increase the stock. The Gnuchka course helped to adapt the economy. Of course, it’s a shock, but after a rock or two, the economy will show positive signs,” Kudrin respects.

The bottom has not yet been reached

The Russian budget deficit at the average naphtha price of $30 per barrel will reach 6% of GDP, Kudrin said. The decline in GDP in 2016 at the average naphtha price of $30 could reach 2%, and the peak of the crisis is still ahead.

“If the price stays at around $30 per barrel, the decline in GDP could reach 2%,” Kudrin said. “The peak of the crisis is still ahead,” he added, saying that the return to capital of $40-50 billion will become a serious asset for the economy.

Kudrin emphasized that the Bank of Russia is not obliged to carry out interventions to support the ruble and remain in line with the regime of free floating of the national currency.

The former Minister of Finance also stated that the Russian government may be encouraged by the hope that naphtha prices will move again and within 2-3 months will be consistent with the long-term strategy reforms. Kudrin advocated taking the level of $35 or $40 per barrel as a guideline and expanding the budget based on the price, including additional revenues once they appear.

In my opinion, naphtha prices may rise to the level of 40-50 dollars per barrel, which will continue in the long term.
“The goal of the ruler is to make money on the Russian economy at any price for naphtha,” Kudrin said.

The ruble will still appreciate

The sharp depreciation of the ruble (today's dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange has exceeded 85 rubles.) In the meantime, the Russian currency would probably like to take part of the spent positions, the progress of the former head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Oleksiy Kudry n.

“I think that in this hour, it’s crazy that the ruble will turn around to its positions, as it did in early 2014,” Kudrin said in an interview with Business FM.

The ex-minister concluded that the reason for the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the national currency is not the direct policy of the CPU, which is devaluing the carbovanets, in order to help the region compensate for expenses due to the shortening of income from exports at Nafta. Earlier this year, Bank of America's economies were bolstered by the fact that with naphtha prices falling to $25 per barrel, for a deficit-free budget in the Russian budget for 2016, the dollar would cost 210 rubles. Previously, the price of a barrel of Russian Urals oil had already dropped below $26.

“All forecasts indicate that the budget will be balanced at a price of 210 rubles. for a dollar or for a 3% deficit at 140, it’s all just arithmetic, because it doesn’t relate to real life, it’s just a breakdown - the axis of the budget is being balanced. However, the Central Bank does not go away from this, the Central Bank wants to maintain a floating exchange rate regime, which means that the exchange rate follows the objective minds on the market. In this season, there are still lower prices for naphtha. The Central Bank, I think, will adhere to its principles and will not do anything special for the sake of the budget,” Kudrin explained.

World analytical centers stated that the increase in naphtha prices since the beginning of 2016 has reached a level of five years. It is subject to an increase in prices, which will continue for 5 months with rare fluctuations and a decrease in quotation. It is impossible not to have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate, even though our country still “sits” on the naphtha char, wanting to order and make the most extreme attempts to get rid of it. The question about the exchange rate of the dollar in 2016 in relation to the ruble has been raised more than once and is expected well before spring.

Many of us are planning trips outside the border for the summer using a method of choice, and in such cases the budget is heavily dependent on the exchange rate of foreign currencies. Unfortunately, today you can’t buy rubles at foreign resorts - the exchange rate is twice as high as that established in our Fatherland. This means that the great analytical agencies were already paying little attention to the latest forecasts, which were too pessimistic. For example, Nomura International PLC analyst Dmitro Petrov, who is the most successful among 34 Bloomberg forecasters, gave a forecast that for most of 2016, including summer, the dollar to ruble exchange rate will become close to 69 rubles, and Morgan Stanley predicted an increase in the exchange rate dollar for summer 2016 Roku. up to 83 rubles.

What will be the dollar exchange rate for 2016? Gref's forecast

German Gref, in his last interview with Interfax, stated that the ruble is facing a strong political pressure in the coming days, which gives in to the pressure of low naphtha prices. Having realized that the decrease in tension in the geopolitical situation of the region will have a positive effect on the dynamics of the exchange rate, calling the exchange rate “comfortable and fair for all gravitational market participants” 60 rubles per dollar. Gref is facing sharp appreciation of the ruble, which is due to the ongoing subsiding of the conflict in Ukraine.

Kudrin's forecast for the dollar exchange rate in 2016

In his forecasts for the ruble exchange rate for the summer of 2016, the most effective Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, Oleksiy Kudrin, is based on German Gref, saying that the price is obviously high for naphtha (in the region of 52-54 dollars per barrel) cannot serve as a guarantor of price growth ruble The reason, in Kudrin’s opinion, is the high budget deficit of Russia for 2016. Otherwise, it seems, we are tempting fate to spend more pennies and earn less. Kudrin's forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the summer of 2016. from 68 to 71 rubles per dollar.

Forecast for Promzvyazku Bank on the ruble/dollar exchange rate 2016

Analysts of the largest private bank in Russia (Promzv'yazokbank) for the summer released a forecast for the ruble exchange rate, which is why the Russian currency will fluctuate between 66.0-65.4 rubles per 1 US dollar. The financial giant's forecasters attribute low volatility due to the number of obvious changes in the rate of change for a sharp change in the rate, but respect that the geopolitical situation may influence the strong influx of carbon dioxide.

The Russian economy may recover in the next two years without a surge in nafta prices, said former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Oleksiy Kudrin.

The head of the Committee of Community Initiatives, which previously identified low pessimistic forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and the crisis in Russia, at the World Economic Forum in Davos discussed how our economy can be renewed.

“The Russian economy, through one or two fates, will lead to positive indicators,” RIA Novosti quotes.

Kudrin explained that the creation of federal reserves, the shortening of the Russian government's balance and the greater float of the national currency can reverse the growth rate of the foreign economy.

Also, the great "world finance minister" stated that "the sharp depreciation of the ruble is an urgent phenomenon - the Russian currency would probably want to partly spend positions, as was the case in 2014," - again home from Davos.

Previously, UN experts gave a positive forecast for the Russian economy. According to the Organization, the inflation rate in Russia in 2016 will become 10.5%, and in 2017 it will drop to 7.1%, with which GDP growth will change for the next two years. from zero to 1.2%.

Bloomberg analysts included Russia in the TOP-50 countries with innovative economies, before which our country ranked 12th there. The Central Bank can quickly stabilize the ruble exchange rate, according to Sergey Glazyev, the adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, about what he discussed at the forum “Small business - a national idea?”

“We can easily stabilize the ruble exchange rate. First of all, since the ruble today is the most secure currency, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves we have is twice as large for the amount of pennies in the economy. In another way, the ruble is the most undervalued currency. Nominal This exchange rate is lower than the purchasing price parity. today by 2.5 times. Therefore, penny power can easily stabilize the ruble exchange rate and initiate this speculative bacchanalia,” he said.

In addition, despite sanctions and economic “turbulence,” Russia climbed to 12th place in the ranking of innovative economies according to Bloobmerg. According to news agencies, Bloomberg assessed these key indicators, including the concentration of high-tech companies and spending on daily developments.

“I think that the current high budget deficit is a factor in the weakening of the ruble, which means that the price of naphtha will be stable. I think it will be close to 70 (rubles per dollar) for the same parameters of the price of naphtha,” he said, adding that, for According to the forecast, the price of naphtha in the flow warehouse is 35-40 dollars per barrel.

The average dollar exchange rate from 2016 to 21 January is at 75.48 rubles. From 4 to 21 September, the ruble fell in price to the dollar by 17.8% - to 85.95 rubles, and then the Russian currency began to appreciate, and from that hour the dollar fell in price to the ruble by 20.7% - to 68.17 rubles.

As previously stated by TARS at the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the ruble exchange rate has approached the same value.

GDP forecast

The ex-minister also appreciates that the fall in the Russian Federation’s GDP in 2016 will increase by 1.5-2% for naphtha prices of $35-40 per barrel, and the coming fate will show a slight increase in the range of 1%. “I think that naphtha prices are from $35 to $40 per barrel (in 2016 growth). I think that the decline in GDP is from 1.5% to 2% at these prices,” he said.

Relying on power supply, if growth continues, we believe that “the next step is between 1% and 0 to 1%.” At the same time, Kudrin appreciates that capital in 2016 will be the same as in 2015 - close to $50 billion. According to the data of the CPU, last year the export of private capital from the Russian Federation accumulated $56.9 billion.

The official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade for 2016 predicts GDP growth of 0.7% at naphtha prices of $50 per barrel. In the near future, the ministry plans to update the macro forecast. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Oleksiy Ulyukaev, indicated that the base forecast may include a naphtha price of between $35 and $40 per barrel. In this case, we look at the positive dynamics of GDP. In 2017, wine growth is expected to grow at 1.5-2.5%.

Ex-Minister of Finance of Russia Oleksiy Kudrin appreciates that the price of naphtha and the ruble exchange rate in 2016 will remain at the flow level, although it is possible for naphtha to fall below 50 dollars per barrel.

I think we can safely take 50 dollars per barrel of future rock as a basis. As for the exchange rate of the ruble, then for saving the price of oil 50 dollars in wine you will lose a lot of money. And if the price of naphtha changes, the ruble becomes weaker,” said Kudrin in an interview with the radio station “Business FM.”

However, having said everything, it’s best to make forecasts. “Nobody knows. Goldman Sachs says that a price of $20 per barrel is possible. Theoretically, this is certain, but it’s less important to talk about those who will be so. I won’t guess.”

Oleksiy Kudrin respects recent statements about the beginning of the Russian economy’s recovery from the crisis, although he wants its fall to have already reached the bottom.

“GDP, melodiously, has reached the bottom, although they talked about it both in the first quarter and in the other. I've already said that I'm still ahead. Perhaps we are at the bottom right now. Otherwise, growth, if it happens, will appear so much that we are still deprived at the bottom point of the fall,” said the ex-minister.

“The decline in GDP will be 3.9% according to the official forecast. I think that (as I transferred to the past fate) it will be 4%. This new generation has achieved a historically high level of appreciation. In the middle of the year, the economy was higher by 17.5%, now close to 15.5%, due to the extremely high inflation in river terms, which requires the use of all resources in the country, all credit resources are too expensive and requires further development. Therefore, reducing inflation is the most important task of the CPU,” he said.

In other words, the most unacceptable is the decline in investment in the region. “Investment is falling at a rate similar to that of 2009, and the coming fate will likely continue to fall. It’s not possible to talk about those that we are already seriously choosing,” Kudrin respects.

“Statistically, the offensive river will show changes equal to 2015. Because we began our fate with great performances, but ended with less great ones. “We will be deprived of our future fate on this minimal level for a long time,” said the former minister.

In 2016, salaries of Russians will decrease by 10%, and real incomes will decrease by 7%.

“2016 will be like this from the perspective of business and the population. Joblessness may become a little worse. The most unpleasant thing about this crisis - at the time of the 2008-2009 crisis - is the serious decline in real incomes of the population. The wages will decrease by 7%, wages - by 10% in real terms,” he said.

“We have had a lot of enterprises before the fall, they respected this fate, that the axis would begin to grow, we are interrupted, and thus they sent people to the summer exits, started the training and announced an unusual working day. But soon they realized that the situation would not improve, and mass liberation would begin - the axis of this autumn. That’s why it’s time to stop at any time,” the ex-minister said.

“As a result, our real incomes will fall, and our social situation will seem unforgivable. “Here, until the middle of the coming fate, we are moving forward so that more growth can begin,” said Kudrin.

In his words, the nearest future growth will be “1.5%, no more, but behind the world of Russia there is still stagnation.”

In this case, in Kudrin’s opinion, the Russian government is taking all possible steps to combat the crisis as much as possible.

“It’s important, in view of the anti-crisis approach and the response approach, to put everything in place that is possible. Obviously, in 2008-2009 it was better to use less resources for brains. When we reached the 2008-2009 rocks, we had great things in stock that we sent - and thus quickly emerged from the crisis. Pensions increased and expenses increased exponentially. They did not feel quickly, but became stronger. This is what we call countercyclical policy,” said V.

“Now, if it turned out that before this crisis, the country had reached a budget balance of 110 dollars per barrel, which means that even if the price is lower, it will reduce spending, and there are no more reserves for food trims of such a high level of videotapes, otherwise the stench is stronger Shvidko vitrachayutsya. Therefore, the order immediately tends to reverse the following logic: reserves are often spent, and reserves are often short-lived. Therefore, there will be no need for what is called “pro-cyclical policy” among economists, the ex-minister respects.

In other words, the order, changing spending, also creates problems for the growth, so that investments are wasted, ahead of the development of roads, lighting, reconstruction of lighting facilities, health protection, etc. of our objects, the obligations of living- communal life. “This sense of the title has an option for a pro-cyclical policy, because it was unusual to live before the crisis. Within the framework of this axis, unfortunately, objective minds, having lost order, are forced to rob those who respect what is possible,” Kudrin explained.