The period of economic decline in knitting. Economic cycles. In these phases a cycle is formed

I'm flying, dear readers! I'm trying to take my grandma out at least once a month.

Vaughn has still retained clarity of mind and non-human interest on both a local and world scale. Sometimes we can discuss various new things with her for years.

For example, last year they discussed with her the negative trends that were emerging in the economic development of the region. I want to break this topic with you, friends. Let's immediately learn about recessions in the economy - what kind of inheritance can be felt by ordinary communities.

What is a recession in the economy, its causes and consequences

A recession is a negative trend in macroeconomics (the economy of the national economy), which often precedes a crisis. This phenomenon is cyclical in nature and is inevitable for any economic system.

Recession (lat. recessus - access) is a concept of macroeconomy, which means a drop in the rate of growth during the current period (over the last year and beyond).

Get ready!

The process is characterized by zero or negative dynamics of GDP (gross domestic product). A recession causes a decrease in business activity and an increase in the pace of economic development. Under the decline in GDP we mean a decrease in the production of goods and a decrease in the production of goods.

A recession inevitably follows a boom, which explains the cyclical nature of any economic system.

In general terms, the economic cycle consists of four phases - growth (up), stagnation (stabilization, absence of any dynamics), recession (fall) and crisis (depression).

The severity of the economic cycle in the current global world is becoming 10–15 years old, which can be followed by the world financial crises – 70s, 90s. and the remaining light crisis of 2008–2009.

Reason

It is clear that some of the main reasons for the recession depend on the level of economic development.

For Syrian economies, the reason for the decline is the decline in prices for naphtha, gas and other crude oil that is exported. The price of raw materials is falling, the budget is losing revenue, and there is a deficit that needs to be compensated.

To compensate, tax rates are being raised and spending on social needs (education, medicine, etc.) is being reduced. Such actions will further contribute to the decline in production.

In industrialized and post-industrial powers, recessions manifest themselves as a result of changes in the technological structure, for example, through the emergence and development of information technologies.

Under the technological structure we mean the development of technology and technology, mainly the development of scientific and technological progress.

Respect!

Given the reasons for the culpable recession, it is impossible to root them out through the objective laws of economics, so a recession along with the national economy will emerge sooner rather than later.

A recession in one country can cause a recession in other economies, leading to a global crisis.

There are reasons behind the influx of market participants. An economic downturn may lead to problems in the banking sector.

For example, commercial banks have seen too many loans that cannot be repaid. Thus, financial organizations are trying to push up rates and make money on foreign and domestic markets.

In a situation where such banks have too many loans, the number of loans appears to be falling, businesses cannot pay money and, due to the lack of money, their assets stabilize or die out.

As a result, unemployment increases, the population and companies do not repay loans, banks enforce the rules, and the closed-loop situation persists.

During the recession phase, the economy may be subject to force majeure situations, for example, war or a sharp change in energy prices. A way out of stagnation is only possible through the power of the state, as it “pours” pennies into the economy, supporting various fluctuations and stabilizing the exchange rate of the national currency.

Heritage

The main legacies of the economic recession include the following:

• fall of obligations of production;
• collapse of financial markets;
• reduction in loan obligations that are expected;
• increase in interest rates on loans;
• increasing unemployment;
• decline in real income of the population;
• decline in GDP rates.

The most severe and most critical legacy of the recession is the economic crisis. As a result of the decline in virus production, the demand for jobs and the number of workers is changing. This causes wages and increased unemployment. People are beginning to live less, leading to a decrease in the cost of production and an increase in the decline in production.

There is an increasing concern among the population about the organization in front of the banks, which, in their own way, enforce the procedure for issuing loans.

Please!

Obligations for lending to individuals and legal entities are changing, investments in industry and science are becoming faster, and scientific and technological development is becoming more widespread. Following the decline in production, there is a collapse in the market for valuable papers - shares of great industrial enterprises are sharply losing value.

These measures are followed by the loss of pennies – inflation, followed by an increase in prices and a decrease in real incomes of the population. As a result, it can lead to dissatisfaction and a decrease in the quality of life.

The state is trying to find out the cost and the largest foreign borg. Subject to sufficient financial obligations, current loans and new ones must be refinanced.

All the results obtained are consistent with one indicator – a decrease in GDP (gross domestic product), which is due to the obligations of production in the region.

Dzherelo: http://site/delatdelo.com/spravochnik/terminy/chto-takoe-recessiya-v-ekonomike.html

The economic crisis is by no means inevitable. This is due to the recession. Whether the system is economical or progressive, it is too early to enter the recession stage. The recession is inevitable, but it is inevitable.

A recession is a ceremonial event, and at the very beginning there is a decline in production and business activity, which sometimes intensifies and turns into a crisis.

During the recession, the authorities see such phenomena as:

• negative dynamics of GDP (changes as the quantity of produced products is consumed and consumed);
• low business activity;
• relevance to economic progress.

A recession is a stage that comes after the stage of rapid economic development. The fragments of all economic systems are subject to cyclicality, and a recession can be caused by a natural process.

Get ready!

It appears that the skin's economic cycle has several phases. After growth and development, stagnation inevitably follows—the stage of stabilization and stagnation. Stagnation is replaced by recession. The “life cycle” of the system ends with an economic crisis.

It’s important to predict when a recession begins. The current order can prepare for it to the brink, implement a kind of “depreciation” approach, which allows you to often neutralize the negative phenomena that accompany the recession. The crisis will only come if the economic policy of the state turns out to be ineffective.

Reason

The economic downturn is not inevitable. This is due to the inherent impersonality of the process.

The cause of the recession may be global and unsatisfactory changes in the market, which, in turn, are provoked by political changes. Roughly speaking, increased growth rates and changes in the supply of certain products may lead to wine conflicts and reductions in gas/naphtha prices on the light market.

Unfortunately, the Russian economy is in obvious slack due to the oil spill. As the market price of oil declines, the budget begins to recognize the underfunding that is reflected in the gross domestic product liability.

Experts believe that a recession that develops behind such a scenario will become the greatest problem for the state, since it is impossible to predict and is difficult to neutralize.

Another possible reason for the recession is a total change in production obligations. A serious decline in production was recorded in the 2008 year. Vin became over 10%.

The prevalence of “loaned” pennies among the population and the decline in their purchasing power can lead to a recession. However, it is important to note that the recession, caused by these reasons, is completely excessive and does not have such significant legacies as the recession, provoked by wars and market turmoil.

Respect!

Another factor responsible for the recession is the flow of capital and the volume of investment. Replenishment of the main capital of the state is obtained with the help of private enterprises.

Since the order of influences in these investments is responsible for ensuring the business of such minds, for which they can develop normally within the framework of the national economic system.

Legacies of the economic recession.

And now let’s deal with the legacy of the recession:

1. There will be a collapse of financial markets;
2. the pace of production will increase;
3. banks will regulate the issuance of loans;
4. interest rates on loans will increase;
5. the number of unemployed people is growing;
6. population incomes are declining;
7. GDP obligations are changing.

All these phenomena lead at once to an economic crisis.

The result of the outbreak of virus production is a change in consumption in workers' hands. Traders are calling people out and they can no longer find a new place to work. A decrease in income leads to a decrease in consumption. As a result, the supply will change to goods that you can do without. Virulation does not require the same incentives until development.

Individuals and legal entities become bank enforcers. Stop the banks from moving around the issue of loans. Investment in previous projects and industrial enterprises is dwindling, and the country is beginning to fall behind in terms of science and technology. The stagnation in the manufacturing sector is indicated by the stock of shares issued by industrial enterprises. The stench loses its value.

The onset of the crisis is characterized by rising inflation and the beginning of devaluation of the national currency. Prices continue to rise, but incomes fall. The population's living standards are falling, leading to mass dissatisfaction.

The order is being launched for financial assistance to more prosperous countries. The external borgs of the state are growing. If you need to pay one loan, you will have to borrow several others.

All these negative phenomena are directly designated by the GDPR obligation. This decrease is due to the improvement in the economic situation of the region.

It is noticeable that among economists there is no common thought about the nature of the recession. Some respect that this phenomenon in itself is not critical, while others respect that recession, collapse and depression are not synonymous.

Dzherelo: http://site/www.temabiz.com/terminy/chto-takoe-recessija.html

Economic recession

What is an economic recession or just a recession? A recession (from the Latin Recessus - entry) is a decline in production, which is characterized by zero or negative growth in the main macroeconomic indicator - gross domestic product (GDP), which lasts for a period of time or more.

Please!

A recession is one of the phases of the economic cycle that immediately follows a period of economic expansion, which is accompanied by the peak point of business activity, and precedes the phase of economic crisis and depression. sії.

In such a situation, in the context of a recession, the economy of the most important parts of the world collapsed. Also, economic growth inevitably changes the economic recession.

Based on the factors that serve as the beginning of the downturn phase in the economy, we see three types of recession. The first phase of the economic recession is due to the influx of unplanned and even profound changes in market minds.

To the extent that such inheritances and power recessions can be taken away, one can bring about wars due to a sharp change in world prices for natural resources, and more precisely, for naphtha. The economic recession, caused by similar phenomena, is especially dangerous. It is impossible to cope with such a recession, and it will have a significant impact on the country’s economy.

The reasons for another type of recession are primarily political and psychological in nature. This can be attributed to a decrease in the level of trust among residents and a growing lack of confidence among entrepreneurs and investors.

Such a recession is less harmful for the economy of the region, in which the situation can simply be corrected by lowering interest rates or creating a certain boom in the economy.

A recession of the third type occurs when the economy loses its momentum, and is characterized by a rapid increase in shares and falls in stock and capital markets.

Due to the global economic downturn that is currently taking place, and the resulting recession, there has been an unprecedented increase in prices for domestic goods, a call to active partners, and a large number of types of mortgage loans that have not been secured. high-ranking bosses, as well as the hectic development of speculators’ activity, which created a whole world of fiction.

Get ready!

An economic recession will inevitably lead to a crisis, and in the worst case, to the depression that has been occurring.

It is impossible to ignore this process, but the pro-state, which plays an important role in the process of economic renewal, can quickly speed up the hour of the recession and change the scale of the legacy of the economic downturn in the wake of the takeover and restoration of the It's gone.

What is a recession in the economy?

A recession is a depressed state of the economy, a phase of decline and a lack of any constructive activity. A characteristic feature of a recession is the rising level of unemployment, the gross national product (GNP) is zero, and as a result, productivity is declining.

What does the word “recession” mean? In translation from English, recession means “decline, decline.” The word resembles the Latin recessus, which means entrance. Speaking in terms of economic cycles, an economic recession is the moment when the boom falls, followed by a bottom phase, which comes down, after which the peak or boom begins again.

A variant of a deep recession is called depression. However, in our time the term is absolutely unpopular. It is most common to talk about a recession. There was a great recession or Great Depression in the United States in 1929.

From that hour, as the economist M. Rothbard points out, the US government was so afraid of something like this happening again that it literally defended the term “depression” and ushered in more and more constant “recession.” After the recession, more data began to emerge over the years, and instead they were replaced by the concepts of recession, recovery, and increased growth.

In the light economy, the ongoing decline does not pass unnoticed by other market participants. The fragments in the macroeconomy of all regions are “tied together” by a single market, and there will be a profit. The largest global light recession was still observed in 2008–2010.

Beginning with the collapse of the US home equity market, the economy of the largest power on the continent of New America absorbed the whole world. This decline calls for an oversupply of resources in the markets. People in all these countries spent pennies, and their riches sank into oblivion.

Reason

Over time, the economy develops cyclically. The cycle of contraction (recession, recession) is followed by a cycle of expansion (upward). Due to its cyclical nature, it is impossible to say that a recession is an unpredictable or over-the-top phenomenon. However, even if there is a recession, it can be postponed.

Respect!

Current economic theory shows four types of economic cycles of different stages (boom, peak, recession, depression) - from 2–3 to 50–60 years. Unfortunately, it is not possible to say that the cycles may be strictly measured, and one stage of life can be carried out more or less carefully under the current light conditions.

The more commonly known cyclicality is found in the model of the French physician and economist of the 19th century, C. Juglar. The triviality of the skin phase, the end of the recession phase - from 6 to 12 years.

A typical recession is defined as a decline in business activity for three months or more. Since a recession follows an economic boom, the reasons may include the emergence of new technologies, the advancement of enemies, and changes in prices for natural resources. Also, force majeure in the form of war, natural disaster or revolution can trigger a recession.

The recession is growing like an avalanche: sensing a possible recession, people are starting to buy more, saving, firms are starting to grow more and reduce the rate of growth, in a word – a massive increase in business is taking place ї activity.

The market is trying to find a new leveling point, resulting in a decline in growth and a decline in investment activity.

Tipi

There are three types of recession depending on the reasons for the blame.

1. Political recession. Vaughn relies on psychological reasons. As a rule, it is associated with increasing investor incompetence and doubtful entrepreneurs. Livelihood confidence is declining.
2. Borg recession. Connected with the vast majority of the region's foreign borders. Characterized by falling prices for shares and discounts. There may be a lot of fates.
3. Force majeure recession. It comes down to other factors, such as war or a sharp decline in naphtha prices.

The skin type of recession will eventually pass and will pass, no matter how bad it is, the problem is that this economical phase will continue for a long time.

The first type is easily overwhelmed by the way of advancement of the population, for example, by the reduction of cell phone rates. Another type may be at risk of exit and transition from the phase of depression to adulthood. It is connected with the waste economy of the region and the whole region and the discovery of a new point of equalization.

The third type of recession, on the one hand, is most unacceptable due to the rapidity of the recession, on the other hand, it is necessary to carefully select the factors that provoked the economic decline.

Signs

How can you understand that the economic recession has already begun? A number of characteristics that speak about the beginning of a decline with advancing stagnation:

• increase in the inflation rate in the region;
• increasing unemployment;
• decline in stock market indices;
• decrease in the rate of proliferation;
• There's a lot of capital there.

For other classic signs, signs of a recession:

1. the fact that the phase follows the boom;
2. decreased business activity;
3. decline in vibrancy.

More economical measures have been brought to the attention of the Fahivites, but how can the majority of the population avoid the recession that is looming?

Because the prices of various goods have risen, so does the purchasing power. How many goods can be bought for the same pennies that have previously fallen. Inflation has accelerated (you can recognize this as something new), unemployment is increasing.

Please!

The recession period can last from three to ten years. Its triviality can be roughly judged from the boom cycle earlier. The end of the recession means the economy has reached the bottom, then. the deepest possible exit minus the typical economical indicators.

The end of the recession, which would lead to the lowest point - the bottom of depression - means the beginning of economic growth after. The economy will recover, and a new wave of prosperity and prosperity will emerge.

Heritage

According to economic theory, the recession itself ceases to be either wasteful or harmful. There is no need to be afraid of what will happen. The very turning point of the fact that growth is gradual, gentle, and leads to the collapse of hopes.

Growth is changing to a boom, but the stinks cannot be avoided forever, as economical tools become insufficient, new technologies and production appear. I'm not good.

Recession is a chain of “cleaning” of the economic organism of the region and lower powers. It helps the economy to rejuvenate and enter a new stage of development.

For cross-border communities, the legacy of the recession is:

• waste of workers;
• reduction in purchasing power;
• the value of pennies;
• a change in the diversity of goods due to the decline in production.

In a word, it’s time to tighten your Easter caps. However, if during this period you will notice how to get rid of unnecessary things for an hour and get more benefits from economical growth - go through additional training, so that you can then find a new, better-paid job, expand your career rnі possibilities, take a look and change the costs of your family, start Buy only those that are effectively needed - those who have come out of depression, you will not be victims beaten by economic evils, but will begin to reap the fruits of the success laid during the recession.

Dzherelo: http://site/business-poisk.com/recessiya-v-ekonomike.html

What is a recession: origin, signs and characteristics, types of recession, causes and consequences

Recession (from the Latin recessus - access) is a phase in the economic cycle, which is characterized by a slight, uncritical decline in production; a recession is also called an increased rate of GDP growth and a decrease that is accompanied an increase in unemployment, a decrease in bank lending and a change in the obligation to invest in fixed capital. The recession, apparently, is the forerunner of the economic crisis.

What is the cause of the recession?

The reasons for the recession could be:

1. natural development of the economy, if after strong growth, having run out of potential for collapse, the economy will require a refurbishment;
2. wars and civil strife;
3. sharp change in prices for raw materials, including naphtha;
4. maintaining the trust of buyers;
5. incompetence of entrepreneurs and investors;
6. growth of internal and external borgs (possible consequence - default);
7. falling quotation of shares and capital.

What kind of things happen?

There are three types of recession due to the reasons:

Unplanned recession. This type of recession is the result of some unsatisfactory factors: the war, a sharp drop in light prices for naphtha, gas and other mines. As a result, there is a deficit of financial budget funds and a decrease in the level of GDP.

Recession on the political and psychological level. This type of recession results from the growing distrust of the population, which also includes entrepreneurs and rulers of capital. This results in a decrease in purchasing activity, a decrease in investment and a decrease in the value of valuable papers.

Recessions as a legacy of the region's external borgs. As a result of such over-buying, there is a risk of a decrease in prices and a drain of capital from the country. Such a recession seems to be the most dangerous and may entail a lot of risks.

What is it characterized by?

Characteristic signs of a recession:

• Step by step, without sharp cuts, the level of unemployment is growing.
• The production volumes of industrial production are falling, and enterprises are functioning, producing products from smaller companies.
• Fall of stock indices.
• Increase in inflation indicators.
• Increase in the flow of capital there.

The current economic recession is characterized by non-critical drops in the main indicators of growth in two quarters.

When does it come?

The economic cycle consists of four phases:

1. growth (rise),
2. stagnation (stabilization, presence of any dynamics),
3. recession
4. crisis (depression)

The severity of the economic cycle in current realities becomes 10–15 years old.

What are the legacies of the recession?

The main characteristic legacies of the recession are:

• The fall of the obligations of production in the state.
• Collapse of financial markets
• Shortening the number and size of loans issued by banks.
• Increasing interest rates on loans.
• Growing level of unemployment.
• Shortening the income of communities.
• Inflation is growing.
• Systematic increase in prices.
• Increase of the sovereign borg.
• The fall of GDP.

Dzherelo: https://fortrader.org/birzhevoj-slovar/ekonomicheskie-ponyatiya/recessiya.html

What is a recession in simple words - the reasons and significance in the economy

The story about the fact that there is a recession in the economy of the state can be explained by most of the bastards who cite the situation. It is important to understand the influx of wine into the economy and life of the state and who are afraid of it.

Concept

It is clear that this economic term has no meaning, so you can become familiar with its most significant ones. A recession is one of the phases of the economic cycle, which is a precursor to a financial crisis.

Respect!

Recession is a term that applies to the macroeconomy of a country; it denotes a sudden decline or a significant acceleration of the growth rate that followed the so-called boom, characterized by an indicator of gross domestic product equal to zero or completely negative values. lasting 6 or more months.

The recession is milder, but not of a critical nature, a decrease in economic indicators, entrepreneurial activity and the pace of economic development are usually associated with a decrease in GDP.
Recession is an increase or decrease in the rate of growth of the gross product.

A recession is one of the phases of the economic development cycle, which comes after an economic downturn, which is accompanied by the achievement of the maximum indicator of economic activity. This phase precedes depression and crisis.

A recession is an economy when GDP declines over 2 or more quarters, then factories begin to change their output, stores sell less, and, as a result, shoppers buy less.

Please!

A recession is a serious shortening of business activity in the region, which is accompanied by a large number of negative consequences (unemployment, decline in stock exchanges, shortened investments etc.).

The recession is inevitably accompanied by three main signs:

1. The phase of economical living begins immediately after the boom;
2. Accompanying short-term economic activity;
3. This is caused by shortened vibrancy.

Many of them have a mystery about them: a recession is a phase in the economic development cycle, and the cycle itself consists of four main phases:

• Come on.
• Stagnation.
• Recession.
• Economic depression.

The complexity of all phases of the economic cycle, as practice shows, is about 10–15 years old.

The recession does not mean that important indicators have stopped growing. During this phase, you can see that the speed of growth of the main indicators simply decreased over the course of time. Consider a recession as a precursor to a crisis, and if all necessary steps are taken immediately, then such inheritances can disappear and cause the country to return to normal.

Cause the attack

This phase of the economy may come as a result of a whole shift of various factors, starting with the availability of petroleum products and ending with the number of unemployed people in the region. The main reasons for this are:

The guilt of minds susceptible to the developments of a recession through unplanned internal economic changes. Thus, this development of the economy may be influenced by non-economic measures in the country, but by political ones, or by price changes in the world market for natural minerals, and, in particular, for naphtha itself.

The Russian economic region is dependent on the price of this copalin, and in times of serious decline in value, the regional budget is insufficient to recover the cost of the sum, which, in case of furious fires, will lead to a fall in GDP.

Economists confirm that such a recession itself is extremely unsafe due to the impossibility of forecasting with the aim of immediately experiencing changes directly to support the economy.

A drop in the pace of industrial production processes, which inevitably causes a recession.
The transition of the economy to the recession phase can be provoked by a decrease in household incomes, which will lead to a change in the purchasing power and worsening economic development of the region.

Get ready!

This type of recession is not terrible, and economies confirm that it is possible to get out of it easily and quickly, having escaped the crisis.

A recession may result in an influx of capital abroad or a shortening of foreign investment and sovereign capital. As a rule, the majority of investments come from private enterprises. And in order to avoid such recessions, we must create such minds in order to invest our money in the national economy.

Vidi

Economists see three main types of recessions, depending on the reasons for the current situation:

Unplanned recession, which came as a result of unsatisfactory changes. Such reasons may include: the onset of war, a sharp decline in light output for naphtha, gas and other mines. The legacy of such a situation is a deficit of financial budget funds and a decline in the level of GDP.

This type of recession itself is the most dangerous because it is simply impossible to overcome it, and even more important is to find an effective exit method.

Recession on the political and psychological level, which resulted from the growing distrust of the population, which is similar to that of entrepreneurs and rulers of capital. This results in a decrease in purchasing activity, a decrease in investment and a decrease in the value of valuable papers.

This type of economic recession can be overcome simply by turning to the trust of buyers to work for additional reductions in prices, interest rates and by implementing various psychological techniques.

Recessions as a legacy of the region's external borgs. As a result of such over-buying, there is a risk of a decrease in prices and a drain of capital from the country. Such a recession seems to be the most dangerous and may entail a lot of risks.

In addition to this causal classification, the main category of recessions is determined by the duration of the graph, which shows changes in GDP indicators:

1. V recession. It is characterized by tension and high-quality shortness of GDP, which in such minds does not reach depression. The fall for such conditions is clearly reflected, and will ultimately lead to an increase in GDP to a significant level.
2. U recession. In such a situation, GDP may remain stable and stable on a small level without serious shifts along the chart, either up or down, with rapid updates in the future.
3. W recession. As a result of this phase of the economy, it is expected to achieve a short-term decline in the growth graph and GDP development at a high level in the middle of the recession. The schedule of such a recession is predicted by a number of recessions after type V.
4. L recession. In such a situation, we are careful not to cause the Swede to shorten its GDP, which will change the situation and allow for smooth updates.

Characteristic economic risks in a recession

Reveal that in the region such a stage of the economic process, such as a recession, has already begun due to the obvious shift of obvious factors:

• Step by step without sharp cuts increases the level of unemployment.
• There is clearly a noticeable decline in production, but their production is not slowing down, but functioning, providing the population with necessary products, but with less service.
• Stock market indices began to fall.
• Inflation indicators are increasing.
• Care must be taken to protect the property from leaving behind the cordon.

At the stage of an economic recession, not all of these signs become critical. For example, in recessions, inflation is expected to increase by only 2–3%, while other indicators of recession are active, and the beginnings of economic depression have been confirmed.

Lead to what?

The main and most obvious legacies of such a period of economic decline include:

1. Short-term commitment to the development of enterprises in the region.
2. The secular financial collapse of the markets.
3. Changes in the amount and size of loans that banks issue.
4. Increase in credit interest rates.
5. The level of unemployment is on the rise.
6. Change in income of the population.
7. Increase in the inflation rate.
8. Continuous increase in prices.
9. Increased power of the Borg.
10. The fall of GDP indicators.

The most serious, most unsafe and worst legacy of a recession is an economic crisis. The decline in production obligations will soon lead to a change in the number of workers in the locality and mass population. People spend work, start saving, and quickly spend their money, which results in a quicker drink, which leads to an even greater change in production obligations.

Respect!

There is also an increase in the number of merchants and businesses facing banks, as they respond to stronger minds in the form of credit sums. Lending obligations are rapidly shortening, and this is leading to a shortening of investments in science and industry.

The shortening of production obligations will lead to a collapse of markets and a decrease in the value of valuable papers, especially shares of great industrial enterprises.

Such changes are followed by the depreciation of the country's penny units, rising prices, shortening of the income level, increasing dissatisfaction of the population and shortening of the population's quality of life.

The government, trying to rectify the situation, begins to gain more favor with neighbors and all the same leads to a decrease in the same GDP, which is a sign of the current stage of the recession, which will develop into depression and crisis.

Variability of recession and stagnation

The period of recession and growth is the main difference between recession and stagnation.

The stagnation phase is characterized by:

• A new economical stagnation that is troubling the troubling hour.
• Increase in the number of unemployed people.
• There is a serious decline in the quality of life of the population.
• Malia has practically zero GDP.

Economic stagnation is characterized by high inflation, which is called stagflation.

A recession is characterized not by a rapid decline, but by stagnation. But it is clear that recessions and financial stagnation are interspersed with periods of decline in GDP and their consequences for the development of the country.

To understand that there is a greater decline during a recession or stagnation during stagnation, it is necessary to look closely at each specific decline.

A recession does not mean that depression is on the horizon and people need to prepare for important times. With a competent economical approach to managing a power, all the consequences of a recession can be avoided, bypassing the phase of economic depression.

But, of course, it is not always possible, the first thing to do is to learn about the economic situation in the country, then look at all the economic indicators and the reasons for the current recession.

For our Slovakians, the word “crisis” has long become a meaningless word. We often feel something new - even the economic crisis in Russia is spreading more often, sometimes every decade (as in the period after the collapse of the Radyansky Union).

However, not everyone knows exactly what the causes of the economic crisis in Russia are and what it threatens the common citizen.And when will you pass away?IQReview by collecting up-to-date information and tips on similar issues in one place.

What is an economic crisis and what are its signs?

To clarify: the economic crisis is a complex of events, which is increasingly important. and then fall of virobnitstva.

T This situation has a completely low sign, among which:

Growing level of unemployment.

There has been a significant decline in the exchange rate of the national currency.

The disruption to the balance will result in changes in various markets for goods and services.

Change in the population's plateau capacity.

Change in GDP (or a small increase in GDP, to the extent that GDP has steadily increased).

Changes in the pace and obligations of production in various sectors of the industry.

A source of foreign capital.

Decreased milkiness.

The listed “symptoms” are just the main ones - in reality, the overflow of economic problems is much greater. They appear sharply, comprehensively (at once a number of points), and with a significant obligation. For example, if the unemployment rate in the country is growing by 5%, then this is bad, but far from a crisis. And since the national currency depreciated by 30% during the current period, GDP fell, thousands of enterprises went bankrupt, and the characteristics of various sectors of the economy deteriorated—and this is already a crisis.

Classification of crisis situations

The fragments of the crisis are a larger-scale phenomenon that can be divided into different categories behind the following symbol:

Chastkovy or Galuzeviy. It is characterized by the fact that it takes care of the main part of the economy, without causing significant problems in other areas.

Cyclical. Characterized by whatWake up regularly (repeated at approximately equal hour intervals). Because of this, the reasons lie in the old industrial production and technology, which leads to an increase in the price of products. To solve such problems, a reorganization of the structure of production is required.

Promizhny. It is similar to cyclical ones, but differs in that problems do not appear so acutely or abruptly. Also, the mid-term crisis is not regular - it does not repeat itself at approximately regular hourly intervals.

Also, crisis situations can be divided and localized. Stinks can occur both in the surrounding region, in the surrounding region, in several countries (neighboring), and in a large number of countries. A global economic crisis is the only remaining option if economic decline is expected in many major powers at the same time.

Current classification of economics

According to the NBER classification (National Bureau of Economic Research, USA), the current economy consists of only 4 phases:

Economic cycle

Pik (if the economic situation is at the most comfortable level).

Recession (when stability is destroyed and the economy begins to decline steadily).

Bottom (lowest point of decline).

Pozvalennya (the bottom of the lowest point, after which the exit from the crisis situation follows).

N a lot of history: when have there ever been serious economic crises?

To confirm the words about the fact that the world economic crisis is a regular occurrence, we will make a list of the largest economic collapses:

1900–1903 rocks. The crisis quickly began in most European countries, and a little later in the United States. This economic crisis in Russia (the Russian Empire) began even earlier - in 1899. Moreover, in Russia it developed into a protracted depression that lasted for almost ten years - until 1909.

1914-1922, First World War. Kriza swelled through the military operations, which were either seriously stolen or stolen from the work of thousands of companies from the participating countries. Problems began even before the start of military operations - when the situation began to deteriorate, and panic began in the financial markets.

“Knives of Prices”, 1923. The collapse that hit the economy of the “young” USSR. Vinik through the balance between prices for industry and agricultural goods.

"The Great Depression", 1929-1939. It is most prominent in the USA and Canada, least in France, Germany, and in other developed countries. The reasons for the collapse have not been precisely established, there are a number of versions. Having surged after the stock market crash in the US, on Wall Street (itself known as “Black Monday”).

1939-1945, Another World War. Naturally, such large-scale military actions affected the economies of all participating countries and affected other powers.

The nafta crisis (or the nafta embargo), 1973. It began to supply naphtha to Japan, the USA, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK through the Western Empire (the Arab powers, which are members of OAPEC, Egypt, Syria). The main task of this action is pressure on this country for supporting Israel in the conflict against Syria and Egypt. This economic crisis in Russia (SRSR at that time) did not bring any negative consequences. Note: oil supplies from the Union have increased, and its price for 1 river has increased from 3 to 12 $ per barrel.

The collapse of the USSR, the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The situation that led to the collapse of the Union developed under the pressure of several factors: sanctions from the side of Zakhad, prices for naphtha, which decreased, the availability of a sufficient number of general merchandise, a high level of unemployment That's right, the military affairs in Afghanistan are deeply dissatisfied with the ruling elite. The collapse was strongly noticeable in the countries of the Union, at least in the powers that had grown apart (through the suppression and externalization of spіvrobіtnitstva).

Russian crisis, 1994. After the collapse of the Union, the economic situation in the Russian Federation was in a dire state, and from 1991 to 1994 the situation steadily deteriorated. The reasons for the problems were cuts during the state mine, waste of economical bonds, outdated technologies and equipment in production plants.

Russian default, 1998. Having risen through the impossibility of paying the sovereign borgs. The crisis in Asia, the sharp fall in naphtha prices and the sharp increase in the exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble (from 6 rubles to 21 rubles over the past month) have changed the minds. The way out of the situation will be protracted and complex, and will stretch into a bunch of rocks (using a different term for different areas of the economy).

Asian financial crisis, 1997-1998 (one of the reasons for the Russian default). This is another world that has appeared on all corners of the planet. Having developed through the even greater growth of the economies of Asian countries, a massive influx of foreign capital began to flow into them. As a result, this led to “overheating”, sharp fluctuations in the financial market and the market of infirmity, and further – their destabilization and decline.

2008–2011. The scale and legacy of the economic crisis can be compared to the Great Depression. The collapse has developed sharply in the United States, arising from the financial crisis. Having spread to the eurozone, it continued even longer - until 2013. In the Russian segment, the crisis was weakly manifested, and its main consequences began in 2010.

Current crisis (since 2014). Having experienced sharp declines in naphtha levels in rich regions. Sanctions will also be imposed that have destroyed economical connections between the countries of the West and the Russian Federation.

Economic situation in Russia: a short history of the flow crisis

The remains of the great crisis for Russia have not yet ended, the report concludes.

Economic situation in Russia

One of the first reasons for its development was the “Ukrainian lands”, during the time of which the Crimea passed from Ukraine to Russia. Also, the Russian Federation, starting from the first half of 2014, regularly contacts the newly-introduced military forces in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. There is still no evidence of this, but the smell continues to be heard.

To put pressure on the “aggressor”, the countries of the West (the United States and a number of European powers) introduced sanctions similar to the Russian Federation. Depressions affected the industrial and financial sectors, which led to a sharp decline in those that small companies lost the ability to obtain “cheap” loans abroad and buy foreign property (silver, technology).

At the same time, prices for naphtha began to decline sharply. From 2012 to mid-2014, prices were in the range of $100-115 per barrel, and in early 2014 they reached $56.5 (the lowest point since 2009). After this, the oil price did not stabilize, but regularly fell, and when it fell it reached $27.5 per barrel (since 2003).

Due to the fact that the Russian economy largely relied on the export of oil, this quickly led to a decline in the economy of all their countries (in addition to the decline that resulted from sanctions).

Nini (on the cob 2017 rock) region from the economic crisis come out step by step. The oil level has stabilized, and since the fall of 2016 it has been trending towards the 50-57 corridor$ per barrel. At the same time, the national currency stabilized due to the currency exchange rate – around 55-60 rubles per dollar.

How do such problems threaten the average citizen?

Companies in various sectors of the economy are also feeling the crisis. A no less influx of veins is given to the sizable hulk. It is an unpleasant situation to lead to further consequences:

Salaries are decreasing (either increasing or decreasing).

The purchasing power decreases (through an increase in prices, wages, changes, and failure to save).

You will be able to see the basic set of products, distribution.

Enjoy the possibility of obtaining medical assistance and illumination.

The work place is shortened (this can lead to the end of the day, as people do their work, and make jokes for those who joke).

The selection of goods in stores is changing (not all the time, not critically, and not in all areas).

Add to this other intangible problems. The population, whose level of life is falling, is losing their mood - the whole population is angry. As the situation drags on, social tension may increase: confidence drops to the point of order, citizens more actively express their dissatisfaction (in Merezha, at rallies).

Cause viniknennya crisis

There are many theories and explanations for the causes of the crisis, but one of the most widespread is the Marxist version. Posted by Karl Marx (1st volume of “Capital”, 1867), it precisely indicates the essence of the problematic situations of the economy. Karl Marx noted that until the end of the 18th century (before the industrial revolution, when production began to rapidly develop in rich countries) there were no regular cycles of economic booms and declines.

Consistent with this theory, the crisis is an invisible part of the capitalist economy. No matter how stable, reliable and balanced the economic system of the power was, the crisis situations in it were still being wasted, are being wasted and are being wasted away. You can “tidy up” them, weaken their flow, make them more rare, but you can’t use them all the time.

Distribution of catless food to the unemployed during the Great Depression (USA)

According to the author’s words, it is explained that any capitalist (the ruler of enterprise) will have greater profits. For this purpose it is necessary to sell as many goods as possible at the lowest possible cost of their production. Then the benefits of products that vibrate are achieved to the maximum.

However, no one controls the balance between the foreign exchange rate of vibrated goods and the real wages of the population (which takes away less, but also vibrates - otherwise the capitalist would not take away the profit). As an inheritance, it is timely to lead to the fact that the owner of the production industry has a drop in income.

In order to achieve this, active efforts are starting to take place, either aimed at increasing the sales of goods or at reducing the productivity of production. If this doesn’t help, short-lived enterprises begin, right up to bankruptcy. As a result, unemployment increases, and as the market enters the market, competitors who are now facing the same problems want to flee.

To be clear, the new economic crisis arises through the balance between production and the production of goods and services.

If we evaluate more carefully, then the causes of problems can be seen:

Uncontrolled inflation growth.

Focusing on one corner of the economy and lacking respect for other areas.

Political instability.

Pardons in management.

Antiquated production.

The release of non-competitive products that are sold to imported goods, and at which the cost is not cheaper (or not much cheaper) for them.

Ways out of the crisis

Before A skin crisis situation is individual, and there is no single “recipe” for it. However, you can specify a number of basic steps that you need to develop the skills to solve the problem:

Diversification of budget funds: creation of the maximum number of nobles to withdraw profits. In this case, due to the fall in production in the Russian Federation (as in Russia - the price of naphtha), the economy suffers less.

The creation of workers is an increase in the employment of the population. It is beneficial for the budget that more money is needed in the form of taxes, and, in addition, the population is more likely to be spent, stimulating production. To create a healthy work environment, it is necessary to maintain a friendly atmosphere for business.

Inflation Stream.

Financial control: over the exchange rate, over the interest rate.

Informing the population and businesses: about the current situation, about forecasts and prospects, about recommendations for solving problems.

Renewal of industrial fishing line: equipment, technology.

Supporting the key problems of the economy, if necessary - adjusting the division of the budget (reducing taxes on less important problems and increasing taxes on important ones).

About the development and causes of financial crises (video)

Recession Translated from Latin, Recessus means entrance. The phase of the economic cycle that comes before the beginning of depression and economic crisis is called a recession. The recession, as a reality, increases the pace of national economic growth, and manifests itself in a gradual decline in growth and negative and zero dynamics of GDP growth.

The concept of economic recession and macroeconomics is understood as a gradual decline in production, which is a non-critical change in the rate of economic growth. With a decline in the growth of production, GDP remains at zero and falls to a negative value.

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It is practically impossible to postpone the recession, otherwise the correct sovereign approaches can be shortened. The development of a recession could lead to a serious economic crisis.

The economic cycle is characterized by regular changes in production levels, including employment and profits. The duration of one business cycle ranges from 2 to 10 cycles. The economic cycle is a single process that sequentially passes through the periods of economic activity; they are affected directly and with equal activity.

The economic cycle consists of the following phases:

Crisis, there's a recession

This is due to the destruction of the economic flow. A crisis comes after a recession – growth is usually accompanied by a recession. The crisis is coming due to a decrease and change in production; in especially difficult situations, the collapse of productive forces is gravitating towards it.

The market economy often faces a production crisis, which has a negative impact on the sale of goods, falling prices and production obligations. Reduced production obligation due to an excess of unsold inventories, shortened production, loss of labor force, decreased profits, decreased creditworthiness and increased increase in prices for goods and services that I produce There are factors of recession.

The viral crisis due to the inability to pay for the business can lead to bankruptcy.

Depression

Follows the crisis. During the hour of depression, there is an influx of sales of surplus products, sales of products are renewed and production costs increase. The economy is in a stagnant state, and GDP is falling.

More capital, which is created, is integrated with the bank, which expands the possibilities of issuing loans. Progressive economic growth at the stage of depression precedes economic growth. At this stage, organizations face a major challenge - increased profits, and in the hour of crisis, shortened expenses.

Pozhvavlennya

And the remaining level of economic recession. During the recovery phase, there is a gradual expansion of development and a return to the pre-crisis level.

This expansion is accompanied by active economic development. The expansion is based on the transfer of economic obligations that existed before the crisis. The increase is accompanied by increased price levels, decreased unemployment, increased capital gains, and increased investment.

The main phase of the economic cycle is crisis (recession). A crisis accompanies the end of one period of development and transfers the beginning of a new cycle, thus cyclicality arises. In the hour of crisis, the entire established scheme collapses and a new, more corrupted system is created. The mechanism of a decline in prices during a recession leads to a drop in stock prices, interest rates, changes in profits, and bankruptcy.

The crisis includes the overaccumulation of capital through the valuation of assets, which stimulates the renewal of production and advanced technology.

Cause ta tipi

An economic crisis can occur at any time due to any number of reasons, some of which include the following factors:

1. Recessions may emerge through unplanned global changes in market minds. The influences that may result from changes in the world economy include wars, natural disasters, and sharp fluctuations in the yield of natural copals (gold, naphtha, vugilla, etc.).
2. The sharp decline in galouze commercial production led to the recession.
3. A recession may occur due to a decrease in the purchasing power of the population. A change in the level of income leads to a decrease in sales obligations, which results in a decrease in production obligations.
4. A recession could cause a downturn in the national economy. The majority of government capital comes from investments in private enterprises. It is likely that a change in the level of investment will lead to a sovereign crisis.

There are three types of recession due to the reasons for the decline:

1. Under the influx of changes in market minds- for the drastic changes in the world's economic minds, the changes of which are wars and lower pricing policies for natural resources, there is a risk of a recession. Such sinks are no longer safe, the stench remains are not characteristic and cannot be analyzed or predicted.
2. Political and family aspects Since the cause of the recession is less dangerous for the economy, some parts of the economy can be regulated and eliminated. Similar reasons include a decrease in employee confidence, a decline in investment and a decrease in business activity.
3. Waste of economic money, As soon as the horde's goiter gets worse, we are on guard against the downward trend in market prices and leading to a crisis.

Heritage

The main legacies of the economic recession include:

• decline in business obligations;
• collapse of financial markets;
• decreased creditworthiness;
• increased unemployment;
• shortened level of income of the population;
• decline in GDP;

The most critical legacy of the recession is the economic crisis. The viral recession is caused by the loss of jobs. Pennilessness and unemployment lead to a reduction in the cost of manufactured products. Unsold goods will lead to wastage of reserves.

When exposed to excess products, production shortens the production process. Residents are worried about debt for loans, as a result of which the policy of lending to legal and physical persons is becoming more complicated, and investments are faltering in the scientific sector. There is a collapse in the market for valuable papers - shares are significantly cheaper.

Further, inflation and a change in the purchasing power of the population follow. The country is trying to deal with the growing situation by taking loans. As a result, the foreign-power level of creation and GDP is decreasing.

Economic stability is achieved only after the rich fate of the work; the main criterion for the uniqueness of a crisis is the forecasting and regulation of recessions.

Historical stock

History knows a number of recessions that affected entire groups around the world. Thus, in the 1990s, the global financial crisis was driven by the economies of the European Union, Latin America, Western Asia and Russia. The final example of the financial and economic recession, which affected almost all world economies, was the global crisis that began in 2008.

2006 marked the collapse of the US mortgage system. During the crisis, the banking and financial system of the state was destroyed. Until the beginning of 2008, the crisis began to emerge in a global nature. The influx of the crisis was indicated by a change in the scale of production, a decrease in GDP, and an increase in unemployment. The leaders of the region, including Russia, have reduced the rate of lending to a minimum. In Russia, the light crisis led to the bankruptcy of wealthy banking organizations, great firms and a decline in the living standards of the population.

The global financial crisis has impacted the economies of the guilty countries and regions. World practice has shown that the most important tasks of any power are ensuring financial stability and avoiding recession.

A recession is a cyclical decline in the economy, which is accompanied by a significant decline in business activity and the market for two quarters. This signifies the phase of the economic cycle that follows the period of economic boom (boom) and the phase of economic crisis and depression, which is changing.
This term can be explained in terms of the situation when businesses in the country began to produce fewer goods, and people, obviously, began to buy less. Such a fall is not critical, and the power can reduce its magnitude and inheritance, having lost the necessary approaches. Another food, how effective the smell is and how effective it is.

Possible legacies of the economic downturn:

• increased unemployment rate;
• rising inflation;
• decline in stock market indices;
• decline in vibrancy;
• beyond the cordon.

Don't confuse this with depression. Among economists, it is very hot, in my simple way I explain the differences between these economic terms: “When a job spends your money, there is a recession, when a job spends on you, there is a depression.”

Tipi ta cause viniknennya

There may be a number of reasons for an economic downturn, including the type of recession and how to combat it.

• The first type is the decline of the economy caused by sudden and unplanned changes in market minds (military affairs, the rise in world prices for natural resources, such as naphtha and gas). Rive of the development of rich lands, of Russia, of tight knitting. This reduction will inevitably lead to a change in the state budget and, therefore, the level of GDP. According to the Fahivtsev, such an economic decline is not safe, the remains of these reasons cannot be transferred and come into being, which will lead to large-scale changes in the country;
• Another type - the reasons for the decline of the economy lie in the changes in investment, decreased purchasing power and level of confidence of the population. To ameliorate such a situation, the power creates a special boom (changes the exchange rate of valuable papers and prices for goods) and lowers the multi-hundred rates;
• The third type is an economic decline in the demand of great power banks, falling quotes on the capital and stock markets, and resulting in a decline in losses.

There is a paradox: the fragments of the data just before the quarterly change in GDP become apparent

Is the Russian crisis the legacy of a recession?

With great secrecy and can be completely reviewed, official information about the current recession is most often voiced when the country is either at the stage of a new phase or in the state of a severe crisis (depression). ї). Therefore, it is very important to accurately predict the level of GDP, as well as the factors that contribute to such changes. In many developed countries there are special organs that deal with this nutrition. For example, Great Britain has such a body as the National Statistical Service.

Light proof

Considering the history of the world, one can come to an unpretentious conclusion, which is a term that is often seen in the economies of rich countries. In the US alone, after the Second World War, the period of economic decline occurred in these figures more than ten times, in Great Britain - at least 5 times. In this period of globalization, the economies of many countries are closely tied together, so that an economic recession in one country or another could lead to a collapse in the economy of not only others. countries, and until the collapse on the light exchanges. The most troubling economic downturns that affected many countries at the same time occurred in 1998, from 2000 to 2001, and in 2008–2009.

It is impossible to avoid an economic recession, its appearance is natural and is a way of checking both the financial system of the region and the effectiveness of the state. Quite often the decline of the economy leads to a change in the government of the country.
The period of recession gave the power the opportunity to promptly stagnate its income to “boost” the economy. Warto note that different countries are experiencing economic decline in different ways, which means that there is no single mechanism to combat this situation.

In reality, the economy does not develop along a straight line (trend), which characterizes economic growth, but through gradual adjustment to the trend, through recessions and rises. The economy develops cyclically (Fig. 1). The economic (or business) cycle (business cycle) includes periodic downturns and upswings in the economy, and an increase in business activity. This cycle is irregular and untransformed, so the term “cycle” is a misnomer. There are two extreme points of the cycle: 1) the peak point, which indicates maximum business activity; 2) the bottom point (trough), which indicates a minimum of business activity (maximum decline).

The cycle should be divided into two phases (Fig. 1.(a)): 1) a phase of decline or recession, which goes from the peak to the bottom. Particularly distressing and deep recessions are called depression. The unprecedented crisis of 1929-1933 was dismissed as the Great Depression; 2) the recovery phase, which lasts from the bottom to the peak.

There is another approach, in which four phases are visible in the economic cycle (Fig. 1.(b)), but extreme points are not visible, the fragments are transferred, as long as the economy reaches a maximum or minimum business and activity, then any period of time (sometimes quite trivial ) in this case: 1) Phase I – boom, in which the economy is at its maximum activity. This is a period of overemployment (the economy is above the level of potential production, above the trend) and inflation. (It is clear that if in the economy the actual GDP is greater than the potential GDP, then this is indicative of an inflationary explosion). The economy in this country is called “overheated economy”; 2) P phase – recession (recession and slump). The economy gradually turns to the level of the trend (potential GDP), the level of business activity shortens, the actual GDP reaches its potential level, and then begins to fall below the trend, bringing the economy to the next phase - crisis; 3) Phase III – crisis and stagnation. The economy is in the midst of a recessionary crisis, as actual GDP is less than potential GDP. This is a period of under-recovery of economic resources, then. high unemployment; 4) Phase IV – chewing and coming. The economy gradually begins to emerge from the crisis, actual GDP approaches its potential level, and then exceeds it until it reaches its maximum, leading again to the boom phase.

Reasons for the economic cycle

In the economic theory, the causes of economic cycles were identified by various phenomena: effects on sleep and the level of sleep activity; wars, revolutions and military coups; presidential elections; insufficient growth rate; high rate of population growth; optimism and pessimism of investors; changing the proposition of groschen; technical and technological innovations; price shocks are different. In fact, all these reasons can be reduced to one. The main reason for economic cycles is the inconsistency between the total supply and the total position, between the total expenses and the total production liability. This cyclical nature of the development can be explained: either by changing the aggregate income for the constant value of the aggregate proposition (the increase in aggregate expenditures led to the end, their shortening implies a recession); and by changing the aggregate proposition at a constant value of the aggregate demand (shortening the aggregate proposition means a decline in the economy, its growth means an increase).

Let's take a look at how the indicators of the various phases of the cycle behave, in order to understand that the cause of the cycle is a change in the aggregate supply (aggregate expenditure) (Fig. 2.(a)).

During the boom phase, a moment comes when all the production volume can be sold, then. overall expenditure is less, lower output. Overstocking is on the rise, and firms are starting to struggle with inventory levels. The growth of reserves leads to the decomposition of production. The shortening of production leads to the fact that firms are letting go of workers. The unemployment rate is growing. As a result of the war, aggregate incomes fall (sustainable incomes - as a result of unemployment, investment incomes - as a result of the recklessness of expanded production, in the minds of the fall of the aggregate income), and therefore aggregate losses. Dogogospodarstva will immediately reduce us to the goods of the trivial kistuvannya. Through the fall of firms' investment and household income for the goods of the treasury market, the short-term interest rate is reduced (the price of an investment and living loan).

The long-term interest rate, as a rule, increases (in the minds of a decrease in income and shortages of food, people begin to sell bonds, the bond position increases, their price falls, and the lower the price of igatsiya, this increases the rate in the hundreds). Through a decrease in aggregate income (tax base), taxes to the state budget will change. The amount of government transfer payments is increasing (benefits due to unemployment, assistance due to poverty). The state budget deficit is growing. By trying to sell their products, firms can reduce their prices, which can lead to a decrease in the price level, then. before deflation (in Fig. 2.(a) output shortens to Y1, and the price level falls from P0 to P1).

Faced with the impossibility of selling their products at lower prices, firms (as rational economic agents) can either buy more productive equipment and continue producing the same type of goods, or less in addition to allowance for reducing prices for products without changing the amount of profit ( It is necessary to work as much as possible on goods, eliminating the number of companies, and lowering prices in the minds of low incomes to ensure the possibility of increasing sales volume); or (since the increase in sales of goods by the company, the increase in sales and price reductions does not lead to an increase in sales) move on to the production of a new type of goods, which is dependent on technical re-equipment, then. replacing old equipment with new equipment. And in this case, in other cases, the demand for investment goods will increase, which is an incentive for the expansion of production in galusies, which generates investment goods. There, wealth begins to grow, employment grows, profits of firms grow, and aggregate income grows. The growth of income will lead to the growth of drinking in the galoozes, which allows for the production of live goods, and to the expansion of production there. Increased employment, increased employment (lower unemployment) and increased income consume the entire economy. Advances begin in the economy. The increase in investment and goods of the costly price will lead to an increase in the price of credit, then. Increasing the short-line bet to $100. The long-term interest rate decreases, as the interest rate on the bonds increases, and as a result, the prices (market rate) of securities increase. The price range is increasing. The need for taxes will increase. Transfer payments will soon be completed. The state budget deficit is changing, and a surplus may emerge. When the economy rises, the growth in business activity turns into a boom, into an “overheating” of the economy (Y2 in Fig. 2.(a)), after which a recession begins. Also, the basis of the economic cycle is the change in investment rates. Investments are the most unstable part of the aggregate income (aggregate expenses).

In Fig. 2. cycle of presentations graphically using the additional AD-AS model. In Fig. 2.(a) indications of the economic cycle, changes in the aggregate income (aggregate income), as well as in Fig. 2.(b) – by changing the aggregate proposition (aggregate issue).

In the minds, if the decline in the economy is due not to the shortening of the aggregate income (total expenses), but to changes in the aggregate position, most indicators will behave the same way as in the first period (real GDP, the unemployment rate, the amount of aggregate income , company stocks, sales obligations, profits of firms, taxes, transfer payments and others.) It is important to establish an indicator of the price level that is moving towards the end of the recession (Fig. 2.(b)). This is a situation of “stagflation” - an overnight decline in production (from Y * to Y1) and an increase in the price level (from P0 to P1). The basis for emerging from such a recession is also investment, which will increase the capital stock of the economy and create an increase in the aggregate position (the bend of the SRAS1 curve to the right to SRAS0).

Indicators of the economic cycle

The main indicator of the phases of the cycle is the rate of economic growth (g), which is expressed in hundreds of units and is calculated using the formula: g = [(Yt – Yt – 1) / Yt – 1 ] x 100%, where Yt is real GDP in-line rock, and Yt – 1 is the real GDP of the downstream rock. Also, this indicator characterizes the significant change in real GDP (total output) in the current period against the forward one, then. It’s not really the rate of growth, but the rate of GDP growth. If this value is positive, it means that the economy is in an upward phase, and if it is negative, it means that it is in a declining phase. This indicator is developed over time and characterizes the pace of economic development, then. short-line (short) calculation of actual GDP, in addition to the average rate of growth, determined by the increase in the economic growth rate, then. the long-term trend of increasing potential GDP.

Based on the behavior of economic values ​​in different phases of the cycle, the following indicators can be seen:

• pro-cyclical factors, which increase during the boom phase and decrease during the recession phase (real GDP, the value of total income, sales liabilities, corporate profits, the amount of tax payments, transfer payment liabilities, import liabilities);
• countercyclical, which increase during the recession phase and decrease during the expansion phase (unemployment rate, the value of firms' inventories);
• acyclical, which may have a cyclical nature and the value of which is associated with the phases of the cycle (export duty, tax rate, depreciation rate).

Types of cycles

There are different types of cycles during the period:

• centenary cycles that last for hundreds of years;
• “Kondratiev cycles”, the triviality of which is 50-70 rocks and which are named after the prominent Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev, who developed the theory of “long lasting economic conditions” of business activity “long cycle” and classic, butts may buti crisis 1873 rock, Great Depression 1929-1933 rock, stagflation 1974-1975 rock);
• classical cycles (the first “classical” crisis (crisis of overproduction) occurred in England in 1825, and starting from 1856 such crises became world-wide), which involve 10-12 fates and are associated with massive renovations of fixed capital, tobto. possession (in connection with the growing values ​​of the moral wear and tear of the main capital, the triviality of such cycles has diminished in today’s minds);
• Kitchin's cycles last 2-3 days.

The vision of different types of economic cycles is based on the trivality of the functioning of different types of physical capital in the economy. Thus, the sequential cycles are associated with the emergence of scientific innovations and innovations, which cope with the revolution in production technology (guess, the “hundreds of bets” changed to “hundreds of electricity”, and then “hundreds of bets”) electronics and automation"). At the heart of Kondratieff’s long cycles lies the triviality of the term of service of industrial and non-industrial assets and sporades (the passive part of physical capital). After approximately 10-12 cycles, physical wear and tear appears (the active part of physical capital), which explains the triviality of “classical” cycles. In today's minds, the most important thing for replacing possessions is not physical, but rather moral wear, which is associated with the emergence of more productive, more complete possessions, and the remainder of the fundamentally new technical and technological Every decision appears at intervals of 4-6 days, then the triviality of cycles becomes less. . In addition, many economists attribute the volatility of cycles to the massive renewal of waste goods by companies (some economists should try to insure them before investment goods that are purchased at home stavami), which are observed at intervals of 2-3 days.

In modern economics, the frequency of cycle phases and the amplitude of the cycle may vary. This lies ahead of the cause of the crisis, as well as the peculiarities of the economy in various countries: the stage of the sovereign handover, the nature of the regulation of the economy, often the development of the service sector (non-viral sector), the development of minds and the rise of the scientific and technological revolution ї.

It is important to differentiate cyclic vibrations from non-cyclical vibrations. An economical cycle is characterized by the fact that all indicators change, and that the cycle burns all galus (or sectors). Non-cyclical vibrations are triggered:

• Changes in business activity are less likely to occur due to the seasonal nature of the work (increasing business activity, for example, in the agricultural kingdom there is a harvest in the spring during the harvest period, and in the spring there is an influx and decline in fishing activity in these galuzki (winter);
• The change does not have any economic indicators (for example, a sharp increase in the obligation of separate sales to the saints and an increase in business activity in certain galuzes).